| ▲ | FrustratedMonky 2 hours ago |
| > "obscene" And yet, it is the wisdom of the crowds. The crowds being obscene. Aren't we all constantly hitting re-fresh for updates, and making predictions. The prediction markets are just consolidating that 'desire'. |
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| ▲ | tomtomtom777 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives. |
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| ▲ | FrustratedMonky 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it. | | |
| ▲ | antonvs an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > Who could have foreseen Economists. They even have a term for this, dating back to the late 1800s: "moral hazard". Polymarket creates moral hazard when participants can profit from outcomes they can influence. | |
| ▲ | tomtomtom777 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You don't have to imagine some giant conspiracy. Fact is, that everyone can make a bet, and there are a lot of people with knowledge and influence in the political decisions made. In sports, at least the outcome is only effected by the sportsmen. Here, who knows which and how many people have inside knowledge and influence that they can use that to their financial advantage? | | |
| ▲ | FrustratedMonky an hour ago | parent [-] | | Yeah.
I have to agree. My view has changed in last week. I never imagined that markets could be so corrupted by those in power, without some other consequences somehow balancing out. Like being arrested, or removed from office. Forget PolyMarket.
We literally have bets being made on oil futures, directly before a tweet by the president. Openly profiting on direct minute by minute manipulation. Openly corrupt. |
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| ▲ | heavyset_go 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Putting bounties on people's heads and public lynchings are the wisdom of crowds and its obscenity in action. |
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