It was mentioned in this thread and quickly flagged, but Israel broke the ceasefire today by attacking civilians in Lebanon so Iran closed the straight. It was open prior to the ceasefire violation.

France's Macron actually just commented on this: https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/2041990505760772551

1. Israel attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon: https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-launches-largest-airstrike...

2. There is and was no ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. There was no violation of the ceasefire between Iran and the US/Israel.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-did-not-agree-...

Macron: "I reiterated the need to preserve Lebanon’s territorial integrity and France’s determination to support the efforts of the Lebanese authorities to uphold the country’s sovereignty and implement the Hezbollah disarmament plan."

So Macron and Israel are perfectly aligned. Both are demanding that Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese government will assert its sovereignty. Once that happens there will be no need for Israel to use force but as long as Israeli civilians are bombarded non-stop from Lebanon Israel is going to hit back - hard.

> Israel broke the ceasefire

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Israel didn't sign any ceasefire. The ceasefire was between Iran and US. Israel separately announced (not part of any deal) that it would stop attacking Iran. It honored that self-imposed limit. Israel attacked Lebanon (Iran's proxy).

israels only option is to get america involved since they cant achieve their goals by themselves. trump unwittingly got a punch in the face last time he let himself get dragged in so doubt hell go 100% in again, maybe just lip service attacks to try and appease israel while backchannel appologising profusely to iran as he does it lol

edit: actually im likely completely wrong, what i wrote above is what i hope would be the case but sadly in reality the violence will never end and oil prices will go up and up and up. this is just a temporary blip. the fighting will continue until something more substantial happens to sort it out in favour of one side or the other.