Lining up multiple low probability events and talking like it’s certainty isn’t that helpful to understanding the conflict.

Iran does not “control” the strait any more than neighbor controls my front door because he threatened to stop me from using it. If the US or other naval power tried to pass it would have no issue.

Have you noticed when the Houthis did the same thing (fire on ships) last year the tone was very different? Many people noticed.

Accepting something as a “basis for negotiation” means nothing. During the Korean War the US accepted a term forcing them to leave the Korean Peninsula when peace talks started and last I checked the US is still there.

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thejohnconway 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Iran does not “control” the strait any more than neighbor controls my front door because he threatened to stop me from using it. If the US or other naval power tried to pass it would have no issue

If your neighbour threatened to shoot anyone attempting to use your front door, and followed through on their threat a few times, and now no one uses your front door, I would say they control it.

Al Jazeera are reporting that Iran is planning to continue with the toll: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-de...

Your assessment of the military situation in the strait doesn’t align with any expert analysis I’ve come across.

	▲	refurb 27 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Well the “expert” analysis you mentioned said the world would grind to a halt last month but that didn’t happen did it? India and Pakistan have been running the “closure” several times with escorts, successfully. All it would take a is a naval coalition of 3-4 countries and the strait is effectively open - and no toll. Iran is in a far worse position now than it was a month ago (and it was in a bad position back then). It’s a matter of time before Iran is no longer able to project any force in the gulf. And all the countries in the Middle East will be happy it happened.