The Islamic regem lost all its legitimacy in Jan. Even some loyalist where angry at them but they gain support of part of the people and found a reason to exist as the defender of the country.

They will survive and become stronger particularly if they get an economic lifeline out of this peace deal.

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spwa4 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If that's true, that's because of propaganda. Look at the oil futures contracts: the stock market bet trillions on that Iran's blocking of the strait of Hormuz is something that can be worked around in ~3 months, and we will entirely stop caring in ~1 year (stop caring = oil back below $70 per barrel)

Their army is decimated to the point that they put guns in the hands of the wives and children of killed soldiers and marched them into checkpoints and military positions, and a bunch of them ran away rather than agree to that.

Iran came in with 5 demands:

* cessation of hostilities against Iran and all proxies

* security guarantees for Iran and all it's proxies

* removal of US military bases from the middle east

* war reparations paid to the IRGC

* permanent tax on the strait of Hormuz

They are now down to zero demands. Well, down to the one demand that is the definition of a ceasefire. The only thing they want is a cessation of hostilities against Iran proper. They get to stop dying. That's it. They got a temporary ceasefire. Israel is now free to keep hammering Hezbollah. Syria is free to keep hammering Syrian "shi'a groups" and should the US want to show the Houthi's who's boss, Iran won't help them (not that Iran was ever going to help them militarily, but this implies they also won't even close hormuz again)

If this holds, everyone's going to be totally surprised at the obvious consequences:

1) Europe and even China owe a great debt of gratitude to the US (yes, really) (not that the CCPs gratitude has ever lasted more than a few months, but still)

2) Putin will be absolutely furious, since he's now betrayed by both the EU and Iran's islamists, and will go into full preparations to attack Europe. What I mean to say is, he may do something drastic. He has lost 2 allies in less than 4 months, and didn't have many to begin with. Reassert Russia's power? Russia wasn't even able to increase oil production!

(Which is yet another reason the EU will suddenly appear very cooperative with the US)

I'm curious which way Russian propaganda will turn. Will they betray Iran because they're now useless for Russia's war in Ukraine? Will they maybe tell themselves they can make Iran's islamists keep fighting? Will they push for terror attacks in Europe? I imagine there's a scene playing out in Russia, but probably not in Moscow right now with Putin doing his best "nein, nein, nein" impression and opening a window ...

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stefan_ 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It helps the discussion if you would correctly restate what has been agreed. The first obvious mistake is that the US have agreed Iran can charge tax on ships passing the strait; at 32000 ships a year and a nominal $2M, that amounts to $64B alone, doubling their revenue from oil exports and making any foreign currency they like appear in their accounts.

And no, Europe and others definitely do not owe you any debt for this catastrophic war of choice (that still, they enabled! good luck flying there without them!). You will permanently lose many of the ME states to China.

	▲	hdgvhicv 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		There’s a good argument that European counties should be taking Trump to court and sanctioning him personally for the damage caused by a war he started.

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fakedang 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not sure which world you're in, but Iran has put forward a 10-point demand plan, and it looks like the US (or rather Trump) will likely accept all of them instead of getting stuck in a quagmire before elections.

	▲	spwa4 an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah, they did. Did you compare to their original 5 point plan? Their 10 point plan sounds like they've given up removing US bases, taxing Hormuz AND the safety of their proxy armies. No "right" to nuclear bombs (sorry "power stations"). No reparation payments. No removal of US bases. Any agreement with Iran doesn't matter anyway, because Iran hasn't held up it's previous agreements, so there's no real long term point to any agreement. I wonder if they'll let the US clean up their nuclear stockpile and their centrifuges. That is the real question that matters to the west: does the US (or someone trustworthy) get to go in and remove that shit? Does the US (or someone trustworthy) get to go in and demine Hormuz? (oh sorry, did propagandists claim Iran didn't mine Hormuz? Well, they lied. And we could point out that that is yet another islamist warcrime ... but what's the point? Frankly it's a pathetic warcrime compared to what they do to people in Iran itself, Syria and Yemen)

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watwut 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Europe and even China owe a great debt of gratitude to the US

Absolutely not, USA actions harmed Europe and Europe knows it.

> Putin will be absolutely furious, since he's now betrayed by both the EU

In what alternative universe?