There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.

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M95D 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I agree with you that this is just temporary, but for entirely different reasons. I think that stock market fluctuations are making some people very very rich. It's the same game as they did with the tariffs on/off every week and it's not over yet.

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01100011 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't think we know if the ceasefire will hold or if it's another attempt by trump at strategic delay/deception, but remember that the strait carries a lot more than oil and those things cannot be transported via a pipeline.

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antoniojtorres 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Reroute where? Nonsense. If that was the case then the tensions wouldn’t be this high.

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dismalaf 5 hours ago | parent [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi...

Tensions are high because of all the trapped ships. Not because there's no alternative.

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decimalenough 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The Saudi & UAE pipelines combined can only carry around 9mbpd and are already maxed out, compared to an average of 20 through the Strait.

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dismalaf 5 hours ago | parent [-]

And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices, the Saudis can sit on some oil and have the US get rid of their geopolitical and economic rival.

Again, short term goal is to clear out the stranded ships and the war can resume.

Because the Iranian 10 point plan is so ridiculous even Trump isn't dumb enough to take it.

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Yoric 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

My assumption is that, by now, Trump just wants to save face and move on to an easier target, one that can't strike back. He's been preparing the US opinion for Cuba.

So I wouldn't be surprised if negotiations just... stopped, without anything happening. Pretty much what happened, if I understand correctly, to the economic negotiations with Japan, EU, Canada, Mexico and anybody else regarding US import taxes.

	▲	M95D 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		But there's no oil to gain in Cuba, no stock market interests, and no pushing from Israel. So, why would he do that?

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tonfa 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices

That oil is being consumed somewhere, countries/industries will face shortage (in addition to the price increase).

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locknitpicker 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices, the Saudis can sit on some oil and have the US get rid of their geopolitical and economic rival.

That pipeline is a strike away from being out for months, if not years.

> Because the Iranian 10 point plan is so ridiculous even Trump isn't dumb enough to take it.

The whole situation is ridiculous, and Trump is overtly desperate to stop the nightmare at any cost. Calling something ridiculous is no argument, particularly when we are living in a timeline where stupidity reigns.

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hvb2 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That has a capacity of 7M barrels a day, so not an alternative. It'll lessen the blow a tiny bit but that's all it does

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iugtmkbdfil834 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Ok. This is getting silly and on par with 'the straight is open; it is only closed, because Iran is blocking it' quip from Hegseth. Tensions are high, because there are trapped hips AND there is no viable alternative.

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cozzyd 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Wait until you hear about the Houthis.(or the fact that the pipeline is only a small fraction of the capacity of the strait).

	▲	dismalaf 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		All the proxies Iran arms is a good argument for continuing to attack them.