If it holds they’ll be a regional hegemon instead of Israel, which is why Israel will not let it hold. They put everything on the line and they’re not going to give up now.

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JumpCrisscross 9 hours ago | parent [-]

> they’ll be a regional hegemon instead of Israel

No, neither Israel nor Iran would be hegemon. (Is there a term for contested hegemony?)

> They put everything on the line and they’re not going to give up now

When does Israel have to hold eletions?

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cjbgkagh 9 hours ago | parent [-]

I warned you specifically that this Iran war was coming and would not end up in Israel’s favor. As I stated “the Iran war is already unpopular and it hasn’t even started yet.” I understand that it is not yet over.

Iran and its proxies can slow squeeze Israel like Israel was squeezing Gaza. I see this war as a breakout attempt to fracture Iran into a failed state so that Israel would be the uncontested regional hegemony. Israel is losing popular support, which precedes losing political support and military support. You had some fantasy that Israel would dump America and find some other client state to support it.

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JumpCrisscross 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Israel is losing popular support, which precedes losing political support and military support

This is a very Western-centric view. Step outside that gap and you'll find Israel maintains solid ties in the Emirates, India and even in Europe. In any case, on the time horizons you're talking about anything can happen. If someone wants to hold on to random hopes, I'm not going to rain on their parade.

> Iran and its proxies can slow squeeze Israel like Israel was squeezing Gaza

This doesn't make sense. Gaza was blockaded. Iran and its proxies have zero ability to blockade Israel. (Hell, Israel has an easy option if they do–bomb Kharg.)

Take Israel's nonsense in Palestinian territories and Iran's penchant for terrorist proxies out of the equation and the Middle East is more or less balanced. (Famous last words.)

> You had some fantasy that Israel would dump America and find some other client state to support it

Israel isn't dumping America. If you're continuing a thread from another time, I was probably arguing that the notion that Israel existentially depends on America is nonsense. Israel depends on America to be a regional hegemon. (Probably.) But it's perfectly capable of turning its military-export machine and gas fields into sources of sovereignty. Anyone who thinks the region is anything less than transactional has emotionally wedded themselves to a cause the world isn't invested in.

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cjbgkagh 8 hours ago | parent [-]

We will have to agree to disagree on Israel’s long term viability without the support of the US. Perhaps if Iran was defeated but so far that has not happened.

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8note 4 hours ago | parent [-]

look again at iran's peace terms - there's nothing in them about destroying israel, and this is Iran shooting its best shot.

Israel might not be able to contjnue with the genocide, expand its borders, or be a hegemon without US support, but the other powers around aren't calling to destory it or using the lack of its destruction as a bargaining chip. Israel's continued existence is pretty secured unless it falls apart from within

	▲	cjbgkagh 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		This is not peace terms it’s a ceasefire, and most likely it’s not even that. It appears little has changed except Iran can now charge a toll.