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mmastrac 14 hours ago

The mostly likely quantum attack on Bitcoin will be a catastrophic transfer of large wallets to burn addresses along with a massive short position. No need to worry about washing stolen coins when you can just enjoy your "well timed" legal short position's windfall.

nehan 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

two things:

1) Short markets in Bitcoin don't have unlimited depth, and the centralized ones are KYC'd so there's some risk there 2) What if it doesn't tank the price? One thing people have suggested is just burning all the vulnerable coins[1]; it reduces supply so maybe the price will... go up? The point is there's uncertainty.

[1] https://x.com/lostbutlucky/status/2040878873731080681

tshaddox 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I’m pretty sure the hope isn’t that burning some coins tanks the price. The point is that publicly demonstrating that you can crack wallet keys is what tanks the price.

hananova 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't see how 1 is any issue at all. Using a computer to make the intended bitcoin calculations much faster than anyone else possibly can is entirely within the rules of how bitcoin works.

It will also tank the price because by doing it, you have demonstrated you have complete control of bitcoin transfers, you can transfer bitcoins from anywhere to anywhere else at any time, and that there is no way to flag it as illegitimate because mathematically you're just providing the correct numbers.

dodobirdlord 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What risk are you envisioning in #1?

Jerrrrrrrry 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Interesting, considering the extra liability / (stability) volatility that bitcoin options provide when making ROI and hashrate calculations, this can be a triple threat.

Like publicly destroying ivory /poppy stockpiles while simultaneously holding puts/futures on correlating pharmaceutical financial instruments.

shagie 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Would going for the bitcoin puzzle wallets be a better demonstration of "it's broken" without needing to do anything fancy?

https://btcpuzzle.info/

If all of them went to "solved" at once or in short order I believe that would cause sufficient panic without worry of stealing or burning.

le-mark 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This would be the case if many people get the quantum “crack” at the same time. Since it would enable a pre-image attack, one actor could selectively mine blocks for a considerable time until others catch up. This could be going on now.

PowerElectronix 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yeah, sway better strategy than dowing the world bitcoin is bust while holding it short would be to just mine blocks here and there, to steal from inactive wallets, etc.

I'd drain as much wealth from the network without being detected instead of going guns blazing.

dboreham 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Probably not since quantum computers don't exist.

dodobirdlord 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Does anyone happen to know if it is settled law in the United States that transferring bitcoins using a cracked key is a criminal act? It’s not immediately obvious to me that it would be covered by the CFAA.

PowerElectronix 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's easy to argue that anyone can operate any wallet without restrictions but just pulling the right key to it.

Every participant knows and accepts it the moment they pull a random key and start operating the corresponding wallet.

tshaddox 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I would be surprised if the U.S. legal system requires itself to list every possible mechanism by which someone might steal money.

hananova 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Bitcoins aren't money.

Terr_ 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

"Darn it, he's right, there's nothing in the rules here saying a dog can't play basketball or fetch money out of a bank vault..."

CyberDildonics 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Washing coins is not too difficult, you could split up values into lots of addresses and use them to buy other coins on other chains.