The rate of hallucination has gone down drastically since 2023. As LLM coding tools continue to pare that rate down, eventually we’ll hit a point where it is comparable to the rate we naturally introduce bugs as humans programmers.

LLMs are still making fundamentally the same kinds of errors that they made in 2021. If you check my HN comment history, you'll see I predicted these errors, just from skimming the relevant academic papers (which is to say they're obvious: I'm far from the only person saying this). There is no theoretical reason we should expect them to go away, unless the model architectures fundamentally change (and no, GPT -> LLaMA is not a fundamental change), because they're not removable discontinuities: they're indicative of fundamental capability gaps.

I don't care how many terms you add to your Taylor series: your polynomial approximation of a sine wave is never going to be suitable for additive speech synthesis. Likewise, I don't care how good your predictive-text transformer model gets at instrumental NLP subtasks: it will never be a good programmer (except as far as it's a plagiarist). Just look at the Claude Code source code: if anyone's an expert in agentic AI development, it's the Claude people, and yet the codebase is utterly unmaintainable dogshit that shouldn't work and, on further inspection, doesn't work.

That's not to say that no computer program can write computer programs, but this computer program is well into the realm of diminishing returns.