Most of the startups were flawed ideas according to vast majority, this is why success is rare.

You cannot know which solution will succeed, there are many stupid solutions with commerical success while many brilliant solutions without success.

Thinking you can guess what is going to succeed or not going to succeed is dunning kruger.

Predicting success is tough.

Some failures are not hard to predict. Politics is full of bad ideas that should’ve been shot down early.