If true I can’t imagine it will play well even among Trumps base. When was the last time a US fighter jet was shot down? 1999 during the intervention in the balkans?

Looks like yes. Last jet shot down was a warthog in Iraq 2003. Last fighter jets shot down were a nighthawk and falcon in 1999.

You overestimate the base.

The war machine is already rewriting this as Iranian hostility.

The base is incapable of seeing this as a failure of their cult leader.

Instead they'll see it as the very rationale and justification of the war.

If they were ambivalent about it before, now they'll scream bloody murder for even more off-the-leash barbarism from the US and Israel.

Let’s see. Most people underestimate how strong Trump’s approval is with his base. Before you read further, ask yourself what Trump’s approval rating is with his base.

> Approval of Trump among Republicans has slipped to a second-term low of 84%, down from 92% last March. At the same time, an all-time high 16% of Republicans disapprove. This shift can be attributed, at least in part, to declining support among non-MAGA Republicans, as approval dropped 11 points in the last year among this group (70% in March 2025 to 59% today). Virtually all MAGA Republicans continue to approve of Trump, with 98% approving a year ago and 97% now.

> https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-voters-oppose...

Trump leads a personality cult not a traditional political base. There are some who have stopped supporting him because they thought he aligned with their political views but 35% or so of the US population still support him despite his 180 degree turn on two of his foundational election promises: to keep the US out of foreign wars and to bust open an international pedophile ring run for elites.