The title should say: "Collusion of large corporations promoting LLMs with RAM manufacturers is killing the hobbyist SBC market (and bankrupting anybody trying to get a PC or laptop)".

Because we all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers. Same as a lot of the electricity in some parts of the world, BTW.

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Permit 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Can you elaborate on the collusion aspect? Is the implication that OpenAI and Anthropic are coordinating their purchases in such a way that they target the hobbyist market? What’s the collusion angle here?

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throwaway85825 8 hours ago | parent [-]

OpenAI signed letters of intent for 40% of the DRAM supply because they have no moat and want to starve their competition.

	▲	pixl97 8 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Only works so long as you eventually pay up... well unless the manufacturers make too much this way. That said are there some Chinese manufacturers that aren't part of the cabal and could undercut them?
	▲	zozbot234 8 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Except that it doesn't work like that. If you buy DRAM and don't do anything genuinely worthwhile with it, you'll ultimately dump it all right back onto the market, and everyone knows that. The biggest worry is that it's actually OpenAI and their direct competition starving the rest of the market because they predict AI research and the like to be a highly valued use for the stuff, compared to building gaming PC battlestations or whatever the highest-valued use was before. Many observers think that this will also happen with GPUs and cutting-edge digital logic more generally.

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neonstatic 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Collusion of large corporations promoting LLMs

> We all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers

I know it's very fashionable here to talk about capitalism as some hand-washes-hand big corp organized scam, but if you put that ideology aside for a moment, you contradicted yourself here, I think.

I personally don't like conspiracy-theory-thinking. If I was a DRAM manufacturer and had to choose between servicing a single customer, who orders hundreds of millions worth of my product, or service a very large number of customers who order tiny amounts of the product a piece, then of course I would focus on the large client, because they are easier to service for the expected profit margin. I wouldn't even need to think about advertisement, sales, all that jazz. Looking at it from that perspective, it seems pretty logical to me that a spike in demand from datacenter operators would rise prices dramatically. I struggle to see room for collusion / conspiracy here.

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ozborn 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

A couple of issues, first there is a history of price collusion (see DRAM price fixing scandal on Wikipedia) and while it may be "logical" from a seller point of view to prefer large orders, this upsets a lot of people and used to be illegal in the United States (it may still be illegal, but it's not enforced)

	▲	neonstatic 8 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Oh, I did not know that. Thanks for the clarification

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BenjiWiebe 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

There is a risk of having a single large customer. As a small food manufacturer we've been warned about it, like to not sell to Walmart even if given the chance.

If one customer buys a majority of your product, your entire business is at their mercy. They can dictate terms, or quit buying from you which can end your business.

So even with RAM - if a company goes all in on RAM for an AI company, what happens when the AI bubble bursts, or the AI company spins up/buys their own RAM factory and quits buying? Did you make enough money to tide you over until you can regain your old customers that have gotten used to not being your customer?

	▲	neonstatic 41 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		You are making some very good points.