Graphs can be abused and statistics can be misleading, and some things are hard to quantify and measure. But the author never makes any convincing case why the statistics would be wrong or misleading in this case: "I’m not here to argue with Scott’s statistics. I think they’re about as accurate as we could hope to make them. I’m here to argue that you don’t require them to make sense of the world".

His main argument is that many people feel crime is increasing, and that in itself is a good argument to disregard any falling numbers as obviously incorrect without any further justification being necessary.

The obvious problem is that people almost always say that crime is increasing, and they have consistently been shown to misjudge the actual trend for decades on end: "In 23 of 27 Gallup surveys conducted since 1993, at least 60% of U.S. adults have said there is more crime nationally than there was the year before, despite the downward trend in crime rates during most of that period." If we bought into the author's argument we would never be able to reach any other conclusion than that that crime has always been increasing and will always continue to increase.

During the satanic panic the the 1980's the populace at large were convinced that large swaths of satanists were routinely sacrificing and abusing children. The police was convinced it was a real problem and had special "satanic experts" to combat the issue, a huge amount of parents were genuinely afraid of their childrens' safety, and there were thousands and thousands of cases of reported ritual abuse. In reality and in hindsight there were zero evidence of satanic cults abusing children. The author's argument could, completely unmodified, be used to argue that we should listen to the people's lived experience instead of the evidence and conclude that the satanic cults must actually have been a real societal danger back then. Or is he only against disregarding someone's lived experience in favor of evidence when it is his lived experience?

It doesn't even matter if he is right in this case. Maybe the all the statistics is flawed and his feeling of rising crime rates is justified. The problem is that he offers no actionable heuristic that allows us to separate his intuition from other people's intuition that has been obviously wrong in hindsight, like the satanic panic.