| ▲ | jordanb 12 hours ago |
| You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in how the indexes work if they start immediately accept a brand new IPOed stock with limited float. You'd be right, which is why they won't list for a year. At least they wouldn't until Elon got them to change their rules: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/nasdaq-cl... |
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| ▲ | TheAlchemist 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high... |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about It’s being extensively talked about and debated. It hasn’t entered the mainstream discourse because it’s too technical. | | |
| ▲ | lenerdenator 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | It doesn't need to enter the mainstream discourse. It needs to enter the inbox of a grand jury docket. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | What crime do you think was committed? Indices are privately maintained and transparently rebalanced. | | |
| ▲ | daveguy 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yeah, not illegal, just corrupt AF like all the garbage spewing out of the Dumpty admin. |
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| ▲ | aeternum 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There are enough Elon haters that you can rest assured there will be an inverse ETF so that you can easily hedge away your index exposure if you really want to. | |
| ▲ | sroussey 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Just call it what it is: SpaceTwitter | | | |
| ▲ | Spooky23 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Well, we elected a bunch of criminals, and Elon fired everyone who regulates this. The SEC was gutted like a fish, and contract terminations resulted in a large percentage of FINRA staff being laid off. | | |
| ▲ | disqard 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | But the Dow is over 50,000 right now!!!1 (actually, 46,565.74 right now) | | |
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| ▲ | TacticalCoder 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about. You mean pension savings accounts? You're right these are major scandals not being talked enough about. And it's only just a tiny less bad than how the system works in socialist europe: in socialist europe the various states' public debt is the pension "savings". Those mandatory contribution have been long spent already by the states with the IOU promise that, once you'll retire, the state shall keep paying you a monthly pension. It's totally unsustainable. It's nearly as if thieves voted, worldwide, a system allowing them to part their taxpayers from their hard-earned money. Pension funds, private or public, are the scandal. | | |
| ▲ | triceratops 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You have to be more specific when talking about "socialist europe". The Netherlands, for example, has the best-managed pension system in the world. Despite what many people believe, "Europe" isn't one country and it doesn't have a single healthcare system, pension system, or anything else related to the welfare state. US social security on the other hand is exactly as you describe pension systems in "socialist europe". Money taken from current workers and invested in state debt. https://www.mercer.com/en-au/about/newsroom/mercer-cfa-insti... | |
| ▲ | topaz0 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] |
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| ▲ | lacy_tinpot 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | In order to be incredulous at xAI, you'd have to be incredulous of the AI business in general, which is fair. But then you'd also be basically betting against the entire tech sector, and really the entire US economy and against the value add of AI. That kind of bet is much more difficult to swallow. | | |
| ▲ | riffraff 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | That's not true at all. I am confident some companies will make bank with AI. I am also confident xAI is not one of those. It's as if you said "if you don't think Lycos is a good business you don't think search engines can work in general". | | |
| ▲ | sublinear 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I kinda disagree because while most search engines failed and Google succeeded, they did not succeed by simply being a better search engine. This is only further demonstrated by their excellent leverage of Gemini. Google continues to succeed at being Google. | | |
| ▲ | irishcoffee 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | They absolutely succeeded because they had a better search engine. Without a doubt. I imagine there’s more than a few folks around here who used shit like askjeeves, altavista, et. al. Google was heads and shoulders better than those, and continued to get better over time. No, I’m no Google fan, but it’s revisionist history to say they didn’t have the best search engine. | | |
| ▲ | mlloyd 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Agreed. They won by having the best product. And it wasn't even close. | | |
| ▲ | ericd 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yep, I tried it when it had the original logo, was using Altavista until then, it was immediately obvious that they were going to win. | | |
| ▲ | jordanb 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | I was using Alta Vista and preferred it. It had fairly sophisticated search options that Google never got like stem and wildcard searching. The problem was that yahoo killed it. They shut down its crawler and it started going stale. Plus they didn't have as good a solution to index spam as Google's pagerank. It was basically a story of product developing a lead, getting sold for a quick buck, then the acquirer shuts down innovation and tries to milk it, with bad timing because google was chomping at its heels. |
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| ▲ | compass_copium 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I used Dogpile "because it searches all of them at once!" until I realized that only Google's results were worth anything. | |
| ▲ | 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | sublinear 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Hah. I didn't expect to get downvoted this much. I'm not trying to rewrite history either, but this makes me wonder how deeply the Google lore really affected some people. I'm in my late 30s, so fair enough. I was there, but not really "there" to see what happened. My understanding and memory was that there was good word-of-mouth in the 90s because it was marginally better. By around 2000, the media was strongly pushing this narrative about Google being this great technological triumph with their PageRank algorithm. This coincided with AdWords being rolled out, dotcom hype, and people generally taking SEO more seriously while Google was best positioned to take advantage. Now, I'm not saying I know much but I'd be very surprised to hear that nobody else ever thought about setting up a scheme with Markov chains to measure "link juice". That seems like low-hanging fruit for just about any students excited about the topic, but again what do I know. To me, the Google story was always more of a business success than anything else. They got so much praise and so effectively leveraged their nerd cred that people optimized for their results and it all snowballed from there. This time around with LLMs, they can't claim to have the best. The space is way too volatile. What they can say is everyone uses it because everyone eventually searches on Google, if not by default. Google just has to be good enough and the easiest to use. | | |
| ▲ | runako 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | As an adult working in tech in the 90s, Google hit the Internet like a bomb. They were a relatively late entrant, long after most people had their favorite 2-3 they used (I was primarily Altavista). There was word of mouth, but search engines advertised heavily to raise awareness. Then Google hit. Materially every person who used it stopped using their previous favorite search engine within 1-2 uses. It spread like wildfire. It was fast, accurate, and the results weren't cluttered (aka lightweight, aka friendly for people on dialup). Some competitors at the time were showing display ads on search results pages. Google did not have to advertise that I can recall. It was like one day, search was like the auto market : lots of makes, types, etc. The next day it was all Google. It happened really fast in my recollection. And to your point -- as far as I can recall, the big competitors simply did not try to clone Google. They kept their cluttered pages and did not optimize performance. Excite pivoted to home Internet via a merger with @Home. A couple of close analogs you may have seen up close. AWS for having a lane virtually to themselves for a long time. Azure & Google & IBM etc. didn't really even suit up until AWS was entrenched reminds me of Yahoo! etc. sticking to their portal strategy well past its sell-by. ChatGPT for the speed of adoption. Google was like a combination of these two. | |
| ▲ | marcus_holmes 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I'm older, and was there. The word of mouth was real. I was working in tech at the time, and had Google recommended to me by a mate. I tried it, and it rocked. This would be about 1996, I guess, somewhen around then. Every techie converted to Google, and we converted our friends and family. Sure they got media coverage, but remember at that time journos had very little clue about tech and relied on their techie friends and family for tips about what was going on. And, obviously, the internet was the big story at the time. I would absolutely not be surprised if it turned out that Google paid nothing for media coverage and were fighting off journos clamouring for interviews. As far as I'm aware, PageRank was a completely unique innovation that no-one else had done or tried before. There may have been imitators, but they never got the traction that Google did. By 2000, and AdWords and all the rest, Google was already the dominant search engine, at least with tech folks. SEO was just beginning around this time, because of that dominance. And yeah, Gemini is an also-ran, despite all the money and tech expertise Google have thrown at it. It'll be interesting to see if they cancel it, like they have other products that have not done as well in the market (G+ being the classic case). Same for Meta (and, well, Meta). | |
| ▲ | irishcoffee 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think that’s a fair point. What I would say in response is that you should bear in mind the times back then. The internet had just blown up. CompSci programs at major universities were still teaching Fortran and COBOL. Linux had its very first release in 1991 I think (when the initial Google folks were in high school), people knew what BSD stood for back then, web protocols were not horribly dissimilar to the Wild West, and don’t even get me started on web standards. In addition to all of that, they actually fixed search. There was this golden era where searching worked. The other responses you’ve had so far are much more enlightening than mine, I’m spent. I didn’t meant to come off as an ass, it’s interesting to hear your perspective on this. |
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| ▲ | lacy_tinpot 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >I am also confident xAI is not one of those Surely you're going to buy long Put options with that confidence, right? | | |
| ▲ | ZitchDog 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You can’t trade options on an IPO. | | |
| ▲ | groby_b 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | You can post-IPO - depending on liquidity. I don't think that'll be an issue here. And if the thesis of "it's going to look good for the first 15 days" holds, you can indeed be very profitable by e.g. buying ATM puts. (The problem being that markets don't like sticking to time tables just to accommodate your investment thesis ;) So yes, you'll be able to take a bearish position fairly shortly after the IPO. | | |
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| ▲ | compass_copium 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The market can stay irrational... | | |
| ▲ | lacy_tinpot 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Sure. It's the market that's irrational, not the people here. The people here are the truly enlightened rational ones and know what the true value of things are. |
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| ▲ | maest 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | xAI's value is irrelevant here. This is about Elon throwing his weight around and rigging the game to create an artificial squeeze so him and his early investors can make bank by transferring wealth from everyone's retirement fund. The company is irrelevant. The focus should be on the money making scheme | |
| ▲ | ultrarunner 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > against the value add of AI Hasn't the surprising lack of value add been discussed with increasing frequency? | |
| ▲ | Spooky23 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Who is using Grok seriously? | | |
| ▲ | WatchDog 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Overall it's worse than the other frontier models, but it's decent for queries about breaking news, due to being trained on twitter data.
It's also better for queries about controversial topics, and topics that the other labs have deemed to be "unsafe". Politically, it differs quite a bit from other models.[0] It's right leaning, although it's closer neutral than other models, defining what neutral is a challenge though. [0]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.23841 | | |
| ▲ | seabass-labrax 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The study you link to doesn't take into consideration the Overton window of opinions. Perhaps there's some dimension along which you could say that one ideology lies 'opposite' to another political persuasion, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the two ideologies are equally acceptable to support in a given society. I don't think calling defining neutral a 'challenge' does the question justice - neutral will always be context-dependent, and what may be in the center of the Overton window of one society may be unpopular or even highly illegal in a different society. | |
| ▲ | numpad0 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Wasn't it just, likely, a Claude proxy, then a local LLM for a while, then now-ish an OpenRouter proxy? | |
| ▲ | bdangubic 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > due to being trained on twitter data twitter data is 70%+ bots (probably more than that now) | | |
| ▲ | BurningFrog 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Grok is of course also trained on the same giant blob of "all human writing" that the other models are trained on. |
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| ▲ | BurningFrog 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The stated goal for Grok is to be as truthful as possible. Maybe that shows up as being more right leaning than the competition. | | |
| ▲ | Natfan 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | stated goal ≠ output see: democratic people's republic of korea, the chinese communist party, american first |
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| ▲ | mcmoor 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I tried it when it has the most extensive free offering, and it definitely answers my worldbuilding questions in more detail than I expected and compared to Gemini or Chatgpt. Can't say anything about hallucinations tho. | |
| ▲ | bongoman42 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I use it, overall, it is not too bad. I wouldn't use it for coding etc, but its access to X means it can answer news related stuff much better. Its guardrails are lower so it does fairly innocuous things that will have ChatGPT or Gemini refusing to do. | |
| ▲ | hn-acct 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In my bubble I only see right winger influencers using it. | |
| ▲ | ryandrake 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Right wingers and generating creating nude images of girls and women who post on xitter, without their consent? Those are the only things I even associate with Grok anymore. The venn diagram may line up pretty nicely between them, too. |
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| ▲ | manquer 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >float a fairly small issuance SpaceX are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem small a % for the valuation target. However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1] There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling interests in AI, and middle eastern capital changing priorities, interest rate outlook for the rest of the decade. These are all strong head winds to overcome even when not raising the largest ever amount in an IPO. That is not say that it is destined to fail, Elon is excellent salesman of vision when fundamentals are weak, There is no better proof than Tesla P/E . It is by no means clear this would be successful or not. The valuation, funds being raised, future growth potential are all not based on just SpaceX core businesses which would have been an easy sell. --- [1] i.e. it could be still under-subscribed even if everyone buys into the vision, growth projections, is comfortable with valuation gets fully onboard including retail. Even in this best case scenario SpaceX would have to sell at the lower end of the target range or go even lower and still end up being short matter what, because there could simply be not enough money in the market. |
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| ▲ | xenadu02 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think you have to temper the skepticism a bit though. SpaceX has dramatically lowered the cost of launching things into space. They are still the leader here. They can put a kg into orbit cheaper than anyone, even heavily subsidized state operations (EU and China). Their order book continues to be full. Every single launch vehicle they roll off the line was pre-sold years ago, including its re-use flights. I agree that Elon is their biggest potential problem and a big risk but their launch business is sound and wildly successful. If you believe access to space will be a growing segment of the economy in the future it isn't exactly a bad investment. I remember all the people putting Tesla down when they IPO'd. I bought $4k of stock (all I could afford at that time). Sold $100k of it a few years ago, still have the other half worth near $220k. Their numbers at IPO time were garbage and it wasn't clear they would even survive. Then they started shipping hundreds of thousands then a million cars. YMMV, consider all sides and make your own judgement. Just be careful about trusting the anti-SpaceX case. Even if everyone is technically correct about them it can still be a huge miss not to invest! The future is not static and if they can put the raised capital to productive use the IPO could end up being a fantastic deal. And FWIW I also agree the largest immediate risk is they are over-valued. Only time will tell on that front. | | |
| ▲ | manquer 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | As I mentioned at the end, if the pitch was just for the launch (and starlink) it would be an easy sell. The problem is launch market is not worth 1.5+ trillion though, you need much more than just starlink and all the satellites today to justify that . You and other early investors who had the opportunity to get in early may come of well in this and it was a good bet then. However it is hard to see why rest of us should get in at $1.5T, the downside risks are far more than upside potential at this price . | | |
| ▲ | aeternum 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | At current launch numbers it may not be worth 1.5+ trillion but valuations aren't about current, they're about discounted future cash flows. It seems logical that there could/will be far more demand for launch if the price were lower. Prices are quite extreme currently, a standard 3U cubesat (loaf of bread size) is $300k and that's just for orbit. There could be lots of startups that want to try robotic space mining but launch costs just make that mostly impossible currently so there are only a select few. It's like valuing the Dutch East India company based on the trade volumes in 1603. Of course people are not going to be buying much pepper or nutmeg if it costs them weeks of labor, but build lots of reusable ships, and with each voyage, more people can afford your pepper and nutmeg until it's a common household item. | | |
| ▲ | manquer 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > about discounted future cash flows. discounted future cash flows is discounted by risk. There is a lot of risk on growing future revenue is the point. >seems logical that there could/will be far more demand for launch if the price were lower. This thesis hasn't played out much in the 10 years since Falcon landed in first 2015. The non Starlink component of revenue has not massively grown beyond what size the market in 2015 to today. SpaceX isn't lowering launch price to induce demand beyond out being the cheapest just by enough, they would be going lower if cost was the only barrier for more revenue. It not that businesses aren't possible there at lower launch prices. Starlink is testament that it is. The problem is that rest of the world is not able to innovate fast enough to take advantage of it even after 10 years. The industry struggles with things like manufacturing satellites at scale or raising money for it, or executing on innovation etc. What that means for SpaceX is that even if launch costs are cheaper than now, the launch market simply may not grow quick enough for the valuation number to make sense. They would need to enter a lot of new markets directly and be their own launch customer beyond Starlink. This comes with its own set of execution, regulatory and other risks. The data-center[1] in space play is an attempt to do this. Either DC play or something else, they will need to find and sustain a large business to grow, maybe they will, maybe not. It is not very clear now and that is a lot of risk so any future cash flow projection has to be discounted heavily. --- [1] I am not qualified to comment on the technical feasibility, however to analyze the company finances that is not needed, it is just one more risk factor, depending on how you feel you can assign 0 or 1 or anything in between. |
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| ▲ | applied_heat 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I am sure Elon can launch some type of space based directed energy beam and use it to intercept missiles and drones. |
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| ▲ | afavour 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Their order book continues to be full. In 2024 66% of their launches were for Starlink. So it’s not quite correct to suggest there’s a vibrant external market for their product, a lot of it is sort of self dealing. | | |
| ▲ | MPSimmons 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > it’s not quite correct to suggest there’s a vibrant external market for their product There is a very large demand for launch services. SpaceX balances launching customers and launching Starlink. It's not like they give every launch slot to customers and then launches Starlink whenever there's an opening they couldn't fill. | |
| ▲ | nradov 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There's a vibrant external market for satellite Internet service. | |
| ▲ | BurningFrog 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Starlink is incredibly profitable though. It's not like they're subsidizing some experimental internal project. Starlink is the majority of their profits and growing fast. |
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| ▲ | joyeuse6701 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Not one more cent should be given to that man. | |
| ▲ | nativeit 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think you have to temper the glazing a bit though. These people and their endeavors are thoroughly, irredeemably corrupt. It’s nice you got a taste, but their impact on society has been calamitous, and will take decades to recover (if at all). |
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| ▲ | tim333 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. It's very different from WeWork which was basically just subletting office space with beer taps. At least SpaceX had done significant stuff with the rockets and Starlink. | | |
| ▲ | manquer 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | The comparison was not about the strength of the business, it was about how the attempt to IPO and the original S-1 was the trigger for more realistic price discovery for Wework My comment was that it is possible that by trying/becoming public SpaceX also will go through that same
process once their numbers become available. |
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| ▲ | bandrami 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > excellent salesman of vision when fundamentals are weak Wow that was a polite way to say that |
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| ▲ | saalweachter 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Only NASDAQ so far; S&P 500 is apparently "reviewing its rules" but hasn't changed them yet. So you've got a full year to wait on that index fund, assuming they don't cave. |
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| ▲ | therealdrag0 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Didn’t Sp500 drag their feet for a long time before adding Tesla? | | |
| ▲ | mandevil 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | S&P500 held fast to their rules on consecutive quarters of profitability and forced TSLA to meet them (must be profitable in qX + sum to net profit over the past year). If they hold to them this time, SpaceX would need to be profitable over a year while public to enter the index. They have instituted rules and gone back on them eventually (most notably for several years they had a "no going public with different classes of voting shares designed to allow control forever, if IPO is after today" rule that they eventually dropped) but they are generally pretty good about following rules. |
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| ▲ | lokar 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Also, would individual funds that track the S&P have left themselves some wiggle room to delay this if they wanted? | | |
| ▲ | morepork 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I am not an expert, but my understanding is most funds don't change allocations immediately, but it would be part of normal rebalancing, e.g. VOO and other indexes that track the S&P500 do it quarterly | | |
| ▲ | lokar 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | And even with that, they give themselves some room for tracking error, I think. |
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| ▲ | grogers 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They all smear the purchases and sales from index changes, but I don't think they publish on what timescale. Most funds try to minimize tracking error. There are funds that take this to a different level. When a stock is added to the big indexes, it tends to do poorly over the next year, and on the flip side when a stock is removed it tends to perform well. Dimensional funds have automatic rules to take advantage of this type of thing. There are other companies that have funds of this style, but overall they are much less widely used than the big index funds from vanguard, blackrock, state street, etc. |
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| ▲ | 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | testbjjl 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Cave? That’s the boring company, this is the space company. |
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| ▲ | Betelbuddy 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Uter and complete corruption: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47389233 - "Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu’il a été proprement fait."
Honoré de Balzac
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| ▲ | Saline9515 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | "The secret of greath wealths with unknown causes is a forgotten crime, because it was properly done" for those who don't speak french. |
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| ▲ | stickfigure 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Serious question: Is there some ETF that is "Index of S&P500 minus anything that smells like Musk"? |
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| ▲ | Spooky23 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If you have $100k, you can do it with direct indexing at Schwab. The management fee is 0.40%. I looked into it, but there are gotchas with wash sale rules and taxes. You really need $500k-$1M to avoid tracking errors. End of the day, the overhead seemed more problematic than the problem, so I ended up increasing my global allocation instead. | |
| ▲ | delecti 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes, kinda. Goldman Sachs launched that under the symbol SPXXAI last month. I'm not totally sure how to actually invest in it yet though. https://www.axios.com/2026/02/20/ai-goldman-sachs-stocks-ind... | |
| ▲ | dahinds 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The cheapest option might be to buy the index and sell short the appropriate amount of Musk companies. | |
| ▲ | CactusBlue 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If you have a big enough portfolio, direct indexing (using something like Frec or Wealthfront) could be an interesting option, and weighting the companies that you don't want at 0. | | |
| ▲ | cj 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Wealthfront offers the ability to blacklist stocks in your account (the feature is meant for people legally prohibited from investing in certain tickers). It won’t exclude from regular indexes, but it will exclude from the direct indexing. I’ve been using it to exclude NVDA ever since it peaked (or at least reached the peak valuation I’m comfortable with) Wealthfront’s portfolio minimum used to be $100k, but I think they have a new direct indexing product with a $5k minimum. |
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| ▲ | sethops1 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There is XMAG, but beware the expense ratio is much higher than the mainstream indices. | |
| ▲ | paxys 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Direct indexing is pretty easy these days. |
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| ▲ | mosura 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Ever since SNAP the whole IPO show has been a transparent scam to game the index funds. The market simply doesn’t have enough people actively investing because it rewards mass stupidity over generating meaningful returns. |
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| ▲ | lotsofpulp 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Based on the list of businesses at the top, the stock market seems like it rewards profit margin and profits, by businesses that sell meaningful products and services. https://companiesmarketcap.com Can you provide an example of any of the businesses on that are on that list due to "mass stupidity"? They all seem to operate factories, employ many highly qualified people, and make a material difference in many or even most people's lives around the world. Meanwhile, SNAP has returned -14.98% per year to its shareholders since it IPO'd (Jun 3 2017), and at an $8.27B market cap, it makes up a negligible portion of any broad market index fund, so not sure how SNAP's shareholders have been rewarded by mass stupidity, especially given that the founders still own half of the business. They would have been far better off liquidating their shares and investing in SP500. https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/?ticker=SNAP | | |
| ▲ | Spooky23 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Tesla is a great example. It’s 30% retail, 25% elon and insiders, and the remainder institutional, mostly index funds. The investment thesis for Tesla is absurd. They built the market cap on hype and it got big enough that it remains a force. It’s a flailing company, kept afloat by bullshit. The bigger issue is the death of small cap. Massive venture, sovereign wealth and PE funds don’t need the public market capital anymore, so they harvest the vslue and spit out the company late in the value cycle. Snap, cool as it is, is a social media loser. The investors cashed out their shares to the public, who took the loss. | | |
| ▲ | lotsofpulp 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | > The investment thesis for Tesla is absurd. They built the market cap on hype and it got big enough that it remains a force. It’s a flailing company, kept afloat by bullshit. Maybe, or maybe they are one of the few businesses people want to bet on to be able to create new streams of revenue. Intel used to be big, and now it isn’t. It being big didn’t help stop its demise. > The investors cashed out their shares to the public, who took the loss. They didn’t. The biggest investors, the founders, still have almost 50% of the shares. Also, SNAP peaked at $131B in September 2021, 2 years after SNAP went public at $27B. Would you have written then that “The investors cashed out their shares to the public, who took the loss”? Of course not. Because index fund investors did not cause it to go to $131B, and they didn’t cause it to go to $6B. | | |
| ▲ | Saline9515 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | The fact that founders still own 50% of the shares doesn't mean that they didn't sold some of ones they had. Also Snap gives very generous stock options to their C-team, meaning that they can sell overtime while keeping their large stash. | | |
| ▲ | lotsofpulp 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | In your previous post, you complained > so they harvest the vslue and spit out the company late in the value cycle. So SNAP executives IPO’d at $27B, and over the next 4 years, the market cap increased to $131B, which anyone in the public could have benefited from. Yet now you are saying SNAP execs are wrong for selling their equity over time? It doesn’t seem like there is any winning here for SNAP’s executives, even though they gave the public the ability to quadruple their money in 4 years. What more can you ask for? |
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| ▲ | riffraff 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I mean, that list has Tesla, which is overvalued by any plausible valuation approach. | | |
| ▲ | lotsofpulp 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Even if Tesla is overvalued, surely 1 example is insufficient to substantiate that mass stupidity is being rewarded. I spent many words explaining that the list of businesses at the top are basically at the top of their game, worldwide. |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The flaw is the limited float. Indexes will be forced to buy a huge number of shares which don't exist, driving up the price. For general investors if this is going to eventually happen, the earlier the indexes buy in the better. Otherwise more sophisticated investors will buy ahead of the indexes and grab the profit. |
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| ▲ | lokar 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | if they weighted (fully) by float (perhaps the average float from the trailing 90 days to the re-balance) it would not be as easy to game. The Nasdaq is accounting for float, but not completely. | | |
| ▲ | dmoy 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Aren't basically all the huge serious index funds float weighted? | | |
| ▲ | nighthawk454 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | They are, but SpaceX is trying to get rules changed. They want the index to buy at a multiple of the float, so they release say 5% but get bought as if they had released 15% float. They also normally wouldn't be eligible for index inclusion for ~1 year, after showing multiple quarters of good stewardship, etc. They're trying to bypass all that | |
| ▲ | t0mas88 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes, the MSCI World and FTSE World that many broad ETFs and funds track are float weighted. | |
| ▲ | lokar 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Matt Levine wrote (uh, yesterday?) that the Nasdaq 100 was adding it (not a full linear weighting....) right now to accommodate this scam. | | |
| ▲ | dmoy 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Ok fair, I forgot that QQQ is as big as it is. Edit: wait, but QQQ is float adjusted? What are the biggest not-float-adjusted index funds? | | |
| ▲ | lokar 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don't know about the funds, but it's really about the index. Both for the index funds that use the index, and the active mutual funds and index funds benchmark to that index. | | |
| ▲ | dmoy 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | Why is it really about the index though, if the index fund doesn't track that public index? If the index fund is tracking some proxy that is float weighted, isn't that what matters? At least when it comes to people's money. | | |
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| ▲ | dbt00 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yeah, the OEX is a more serious index for more serious people. |
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| ▲ | throwawaypath 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Initial public offerings whose market capitalizations rank within the Nasdaq 100’s top members will normally be eligible to be included after 15 days of trading, Nasdaq said in a statement. The timeline is shortened from at least three months currently. “Industry professionals, including asset managers and institutional passive portfolio managers, were mostly supportive of the Fast Entry proposal and proposed timing,” Nasdaq said in the statement. 15 days vs 90 days isn't some huge shift nor is it inherently some "flaw." These changes have been asked for long before Elon entered the White House. |
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| ▲ | abeppu 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| ok so it seems pretty bad that they changed the index rules both to allow spacex in early and the wonky weighting stuff.
But if one already has index-based things that are likely to be captive on the wrong side of this, and one wanted to benefit or at least balance out, to confirm my limited understanding the goal would be: - buy shortly after the IPO, ideally less than 15 days - and sell less than 6 months later when lockups would end and insiders are set to cash out? |
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| ▲ | HWR_14 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Why do people keep claiming that every 401k invests in the NASDAQ 100? Few do, and you probably have a choice of a couple of 401k plans, at least one of which will not include SpaceX. |
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| ▲ | raw_anon_1111 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Most people don’t have their money in the NASDAQ. They have it in the S&P 500. SpaceX hasn’t been fast tracked into it. |
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| ▲ | nick__m 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Thank you for posting that. I also read that on some less authoritative source I don't remember. It's truly scandalous. I wish ETFs will revolt and apply the old rule for inclusion, but I have no illusion it will happen. |
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| ▲ | barumrho 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Do the ETF managers have no discretion in determining when to buy? I was under the impression that they usually handle these changes to indices gradually even under normal circumstances. |
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| ▲ | t0mas88 an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | They do, but one performance metric for these ETFs is tracking error. So they want to try to match the index closely. | |
| ▲ | quickthrowman 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The operators of the fund are allowed to do whatever they outlined in the prospectus to track the index, some funds allow futures, options, and swaps along with equity shares to maintain parity with the index. There are ways to gain exposure to a single stock without directly purchasing shares, options and swaps being the most common. Owning the actual shares makes things easy for the fund operators, but there are other ways. | |
| ▲ | ihsw 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [dead] | |
| ▲ | nh23423fefe 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | of course they do. read any prospectus for a FUND and funds track INDEXES using rules. inclusion in some index doesn't hamstring anyone. blind purchases are not going to happen. people assume passive indexing is brainless, but it isnt. |
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| ▲ | bilsbie 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I can see both sides of it though. The old rule made more sense when companies ipo’d at small valuations. It could be argued it’s wrong to keep one the top five market cap companies off the sp500 for a year. |
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| ▲ | browningstreet 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They’re notably going for a large issuance. |
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| ▲ | georgeecollins 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | But a low stock float. I once had a meeting with a guy who said his company was worth $100m. How did he get that valuation? He sold 0.4 % of stock to friends and family at $400k. |
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| ▲ | throwaway290 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch You will be an investor in spacex and xai which it bought. Fun fact, Xai net loss 6 billion dollars per year and SpaceX net profit 8 billion on a good year (https://www.reuters.com/technology/musks-xai-posts-net-quart... https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/spacex-registers-tak...) If you remember xai, it's that company currently being sued for the undressing kids feature (https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/895639/x... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_sexual_deepfake_scandal) in its flagship product. By the way the feature is still enabled apparently Is there something about why spacex wants to go public ? if not then this is definitely about xai... to hide unprofitability and offload it on general public ASAP. |
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| ▲ | lokar 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | The SpaceX profit is EBITDA, not real. And presumably includes massive starlink depreciation and stock based comp. |
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| ▲ | rsync 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| "If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch." This is not a given. Many people have many different kinds of investments inside a 401k. Your 401k can own a rental property. Or gold. Or, in a more mundane scenario, the Russell 2000. If it weren't for the glacial pace of plan administrators and plan holding companies there would be an opportunity for a fund provider to offer "S&P500exSpaceX". It's just another index, after all ... |
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| ▲ | derwiki 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| My 401k has BrokerageLink set up and invests in VT/VTI. It takes less than 15 days so if your company offers BrokerageLink, you can avoid investing in SpaceX. |
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| ▲ | cosmicgadget 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The indexes buy based on market cap or float? |
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| ▲ | tonfa 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | Most serious index do float, nasdaq has somewhat different rules (but it's a weird index...) |
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| ▲ | fermentation 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is absolutely vile. The xAi merger made no sense and this is forcing working class people into purchasing risky assets from a known scammer. |
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| ▲ | g-technology 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | It does when you look at it with a few less zeros… it’s like a broke person floating checks for payday loans. |
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| ▲ | 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | quickthrowman 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| SpaceX will not be part of the S&P 500 when it lists, so you can avoid owning SpaceX for now by sticking with non-NASDAQ funds. IIRC it would take about a year for SpaceX to qualify for the S&P 500, four consecutive profitable quarters is needed I believe. If you own a NASDAQ fund or total US stock market fund, you will have exposure to SpaceX. |
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| ▲ | actionfromafar 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| So that’s what he’s been busy with. I was hoping it was Ketamine. |
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| ▲ | ihsw 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | bko 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
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| ▲ | a4isms 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | My dude(ette): This place discusses SpaceX technical things all the time. But SpaceX is not a research lab. It's a company. That does business. And is going public. Taking a little time off from arguing about thrust and payload to talk about their business paratices, lobbying and late-stage capitalism is not only appropriate here... Look around you. This may be called "Hacker News," but it is run by and for the benefit of a business, YCombinator. Speaking bluntly, if you come here only to talk tech, you're only getting half of the HN value proposition. The value of HN is that it mixes business with pleasure, so to speak. Many people here will either work for a tech business or found one. You can find technical discussions everywhere. Business discussions tailored for tech? That's actually very, very valuable. |
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