> This is going to catch some heat, but what if the most important professional “developer skill” to learn or improve is how to effectively use coding agents?

If it does go as far that way as many seem to expect (or, indeed, want), then most people will be able to do it, there will be a dearth of jobs and many people wanting them so it'll be a race to the bottom for all but the lucky few: development will become a minimum wage job or so close to that it'll make no odds. If I'm earning minimum wage it isn't going to be sat on my own doing someone else's prompting, I'll find a job that involves not sitting along in front of a screen and reclaim programming for hobby time (or just stop doing it at all, I have other hobbies to divide my time between). I dislike (effectively) being a remote worker already, but put up with it for the salary, if the salary goes because “AI” turns it into a race-to-the-bottom job then I'm off.

Conversely: if that doesn't happen then I can continue to do what I want, which is program and not instruct someone else (be it a person I manage or an artificial construct) to program. I'm happy to accept the aid of tools for automation and such, I've written a few of my own, but there is a line past which my interest will just vanish.

What the people excited about the race to the bottom scenario don’t seem to understand is that it doesn’t mean low skill people will suddenly be more employable, it means fewer high skill people will be employable.

No one will be eager to employ “ai-natives” who don’t understand what the llm is pumping out, they’ll just keep the seasoned engineers who can manage and tame the output properly. Similarly, no one is going to hire a bunch of prompt engineers to replace their accountants, they’ll hire fewer seasoned accountants who can confidently review llm output.