> if they are able to hit a few gas/oil carriers with drones there, nobody is going to use that body of water

It’s a lot more feasible to escort tankers after the Strait than it is before, when American warships have to come close to shore. Iran doesn’t have the resources to deny access to the entire Indian Ocean.

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ben_w 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Iran doesn’t have the resources to deny access to the entire Indian Ocean.

I have what may be a scale issue in my imagination, so bear with me if this is silly.

There are reports of international drug transport via seaborne drones in the 0.5-5 tonne range, and of these crossing the Pacific, and the cost of the vehicles is estimated to be around 2-4 million USD each. If drug dealers can do that, surely Iran (and basically everyone with a GDP at least the size of something like Andorra's) should be able to make credible threats to disrupt approximately as much non-military shipping as they want to worldwide?

	▲	JumpCrisscross 29 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		> if drug dealers can do that, surely Iran (and basically everyone with a GDP at least the size of something like Andorra's) should be able to make credible threats to disrupt approximately as much non-military shipping as they want to worldwide? Sure. Do you think that means worldwide shipping would shut down? And the point isn't to take the risk to zero. But to a level where military escorts can feel safe.