There was no way you go to war with Iran without oil prices rising and the straits closing temporarily. So you had a choice: be permanently deterred or take action and bear the pain. Sure Europe would like to avoid that pain for obvious reasons, but it's going to be a long-term gain in the form of a weakened Iran and a strengthened Europe. If you feel Iran and Russia are strengthened by this you're over-focusing on one key thing: oil revenue, when Iran is weakened by countless other things and Russia is weakened having their entire middle eastern strategic allies including the gulf players they've pandered up to now hostile.

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delecti a day ago | parent | next [-]

> There was no way you go to war with Iran without oil prices rising and the straits closing temporarily

Agreed, but

> but it's going to be a long-term gain in the form of a weakened Iran and a strengthened Europe

I don't think this is a sure thing at all.

The fact is that the US and Israel kicked a hornets nest that everyone is stuck in the room with, and everyone else in that room is understandably upset. And (to belabor the metaphor) the only ones who those hornets were eyeing had themselves been causing trouble for the past 80 years.

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redwood 21 hours ago | parent [-]

To continue the metaphor, there are some that are comfortable having a hornet's nest in their bedroom and others that will take the initiative to remove it

	▲	actionfromafar 18 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Did you mean: will take the initiative to knock the nest over, retreat into a corner of the room and declare that it’s someone else’s problem now.
	▲	20 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		[deleted]

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oytis a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How is Iran weakened, in what sense? It suffered economic damage and casualties for sure, but I don't think there is anything it cannot recover from. It's just a pure destructive rage from US side without thinking of any long-term strategic results.

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redwood 21 hours ago | parent [-]

They have put all of their resources into military technology over the last 30 years and now much of that is destroyed or degraded. They have lost their deterrence and the lawn will continue to be mowed if they do decide to attempt to rebuild it. Because the people resent the regime it's just a matter of time before things change on the ground and when that does happen assistance and economic opportunities will emerge. But until then Iran will be in this extremely degraded state

	▲	ceejayoz 20 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> They have lost their deterrence… This is a silly claim; they're still sending missiles and drones all over the area, and the strait is functionally closed. We spent twenty years trying to tame Afghanistan and it went right back to the Taliban within days of withdrawal from the area. Iran has a lot more capacity to bounce back than they did.
	▲	jltsiren 20 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Before the war, the regime was facing the threat of imminent collapse. But if the war ends without regime change, they may use it as an excuse to eliminate organizers and other key opposition figures. If they have not already done so. If no other options exist, the regime will remain in power, despite the lack of popular support. As for deterrent, Iran will probably stop being a significant threat to Israel. But cheap drones have changed the situation closer to Iran. The military power required to close the Strait and hobble the economies of the Gulf states is orders of magnitude smaller than the military power needed to stop it.

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jjtwixman a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The US government were surprised that they closed the strait btw. Let’s not rewrite history to make this all sound planned and foreseen when it clearly was not.

Also currently Iran is looking stronger not weaker tbh. The Americans have really fucked it all up.

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redwood 21 hours ago | parent [-]

I have heard numerous people make this assertion when every single wargaming exercise has always predicted the closing of the straight. I don't understand where this is coming from.

When you say Iran is looking stronger I think you mean in some kind of relative expectation game in the media sense rather than a real hard power sense.. I would encourage you to look at the latter instead

	▲	actionfromafar 18 hours ago \| parent [-]
		For how long can the US maintain its current posture? What is it, more Patriots spent in 4 days than in 4 years in Ukraine? Russia is shipping drones to Iran now.

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actionfromafar a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Weakened Iran is not a given outcome. It's a possible outcome. As for Gulf players, the feel suckered by Trump now. The saudis are begging for Trump to finish the job exactly because they are afraid he won't.