OpenAI overtaking Microsoft? Seriously? Microsoft has a massively diversified business spanning from gaming and cloud infra to B2B software that the entire world runs on. OpenAI has exactly one product (matrix weights), which is getting heavily commoditized by open-source models every single day. Once a theoretical Llama 4 catches up to GPT-5, an API price war is going to completely nuke their hyper-margins

That one product can reproduce or replace nearly all of Microsoft's services. It's not OpenAI that is going to do it. It's people and other companies wielding OpenAI's model that will do it.