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cj 4 hours ago

I wouldn't say it's a fallacy. It's just an interesting way to look at the data.

I think more people need to be talking about the fact that the S&P 500 has extreme concentration risks that didn't exist 15+ years ago (and the Chart of the Day demonstrates that). We're in uncharted territories re: market cap concentration.

4 hours ago | parent | next [-]
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dangus 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It becomes less interesting the more the “overweight” stocks correct.

The extreme concentration risk lessens as these 8 stocks fall in value compared to the rest.

I also don’t personally see the risk in the concentration. Risk of what? These companies are legitimately larger and doing more business than other firms.

Pick a median consumer. Which company are they sending more profit to than companies like Apple or Amazon?

10 years ago the average consumer maybe bought an iPhone from Apple every 3 years, so they gave Apple less than $100 of pure profit dollars per year.

Now that same consumer is giving Apple money for the iPhone, but also spending on services that they weren’t buying 10 years ago. If they’ve got an Apple One subscription they’re now sending Apple double or triple the profit they used to get.

These companies are big because they sell more things and are more diversified than they were in the past.

There’s no concentration risk. I’d actually argue that the concentration risk can be resolved overnight through antitrust regulation (e.g., force Apple and Amazon to split into multiple companies, as they already have obvious verticals that could stand alone).

keernan 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The concentration risk relates to diversification in investing. Index funds are generally thought of as a way to diversify a portfolio. Cap weighted index funds are generally preferred because they are cheaper for the provider to maintain. Compare VOO with RSV for example. VOO is cap weighted. RSV is equal weighted - which means investors in RSV bear the cost of periodically readjusting all holdings so they are once again equally weighted - something no necessary with VOO.

I am not the only investor who has taken steps to offset the overly high concentration in the SP500 that raises the riskiness of an investment portfolio. I've done so by splitting my VOO holdings in half, split 50/50 VOO/VTV that strategically diminishes the impact of the high top 10 stocks in the SP500.