Right now, the demand is far more than supply for GPUs. Every cloud company is saying they're leaving money on the table because they don't have enough compute to serve the demand.

It seems like you're arguing that the bubble is going to collapse soon, like the author? How can it collapse when the demand is so much bigger than supply? Do you think the demand is fake? Or that AI will stop making progress from here on out?

The demand is real. The tech is real. The economics are completely unsustainable. Switching costs and barriers to entry are too low, operating costs are too high. And if the tech improves, it actually makes it even easier for competitors to swoop in and take market share. Not long ago, an agent that was 80% as good as SOTA was not usable. A year from now, an agent that is 80% as good as SOTA will be better than the best agent is today. We have it on good authority that today’s agents are very good, very useful. Why bother paying full price?

This is deeply ironic in a way. Because the whole premise of AI labor replacement is that AI does not need to be better than human labor, it just needs to be cheaper with acceptable performance. But the same is true one step down: discount AI doesn’t need to be better than bleeding-edge AI, it just needs to be cheaper with acceptable performance.