Tulip futures skyrocketed, it was economic speculation on a useless asset, not supply and demand. Crypto is the analogy, not AI. Given that the major AI labs other than GDM are private, this is even more true.

Agentic coding absolutely blew up from demand, users are not being tricked into paying $200 a month, and they’re not complaining about hitting rate limits because it’s useless.

▲ aurareturn a day ago | parent [-]

  users are not being tricked into paying $200 a month

I can't believe people actually believe that people and companies are tricked into paying for tokens. My $20 Codex subscription is so useful, I can easily see myself paying $200 for it.

This belief is so common amongst AI collapse people online. I'm guessing these people have only used free ChatGPT or worse, they use Windows and get Copilot shoved down their throats?

Meanwhile, I'm flying around with a $20 Codex subscription doing everything from writing code, analyzing stocks, coming up with ideas, etc.

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fsloth a day ago | parent | next [-]

I'm paying $20 for Codex and $90 for the Claude Max plan. They are a "pry from my cold dead fingers" product for me.

IMO if someone tried this tech last time 6 months ago, or their only exposure is eg. via MS copilot, they do have a rational reason for skepticism. No technology of this complexity has improved this rapidly in my memory (well, ok, we had the CPU speed races from 90's to early 2000's).

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BirAdam a day ago | parent | next [-]

The CPU speed race might be the most apt comparison I've yet heard.

From the 80486 to AMD Athlon64 X2 and much of that progress was enabled by better EDA being run on the more powerful CPUs being made with each improvement.

Now, we have better models helping to create even better models.

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tartoran a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Would you still pay if prices were to increase,say $1500-2000 monthly?

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aurareturn a day ago | parent | next [-]

Probably. I assume the value would drastically increase. Companies will definitely continue to pay for it. It's irreplaceable now.

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tartoran a day ago | parent [-]

How about if they plateau but prices skyrocket? Most companies would pay but if you're not working for a company that does pay for it, what's the line beyhond which you'd think twice about paying for it yourself? 500? 1000? 1500?

	▲	aurareturn a day ago \| parent [-]
		Why would price skyrocket? Let's say they have already plateau. But hardware continues to get better, right? So tokens should go down in price, not up. Since they're already 50%+ on inference today, better hardware would allow them to generate more tokens for less money. I would pay $500 to start, build stuff with it, then keep going up the tiers as the stuff I'm building makes money.

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fsloth a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Privately no. Professionally yes.

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aiedwardyi a day ago | parent | prev [-]

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