What is the fallout if OpenAI goes under?

etempleton 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Investors immediately lose confidence in the entire space. Anyone who doesn't have other revenue streams -- e.g. Google, Apple, Microsoft, X -- probably goes under or sells shortly thereafter. the aforementioned big tech companies pull back investment considerably because shareholders no longer want to see investment in AI because they see it as a waste of capital resources that could be spent on things that actually make money. They go for the simplest lowest cost implementations and largely abandon advancements. Billions if not trillions of dollars in data center plans and hardware purchases are cancelled causing significant pain in the hardware sector. Hardware manufactures try to pivot to the next thing, but it will be multi year slow process to pivot.

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kev009 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Eventually a new era of maturity and cost discipline.

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Sohcahtoa82 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Anthropic takes the lead, hopefully.

	▲	HDBaseT 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		A downside is less competition in the space. Which may or may not be a good thing depending if you want AI to "succeed".

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MengerSponge 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A systemic risk to the financial sector due to their overexposure to CDOs? Yes, I know that's the same plot as 2008. The writers have gotten lazy.

	▲	zitterbewegung 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Replace financial sector with big tech and overexposure to CDOs to overexposure to large promised data centers build outs and you have the right answer.

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yalogin 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

First thing that comes to mind is musk will be absolutely insufferable and childish about it. A lot of companies will be impacted but it’s not going to happen. They are cleaning up their messes to go public

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superfrank 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm not an expert, but I can't see how they truly go under in the way Enron or Theranos did. If they did hit massive financial trouble the issue wouldn't be that their technology was bad, it would just be that they didn't have enough runway to get to a point where they could make the tech profitable. Someone with deep pockets would step in an buy them up before they went to 0 under the belief that they could last long enough to make the math work. Microsoft has a huge vested interest in keeping them solvent since they own so much of it already. Amazon clearly wants in after this last round of funding. I also wouldn't be surprised if Musk tried to buy it given that xAI seems like a bit of a shit show and I can't think of a better way for him to assert dominance over Altman than to take a company that Altman almost bankrupted and make it successful.