In a span of weeks, the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has.

▲ JumpCrisscross a day ago | parent | next [-]

> the "normie" world has seen just how much power Iran actually has

The weird thing is practically every strategist has known this since the 1980s. Iran's geography means as long as it controls its Gulf-coast border, it can control the Strait.

▲ bigfatkitten a day ago | parent | next [-]

This is part of why it took over 40 years for Israel to finally find a U.S. president ignorant enough to pull something like this.

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justinclift a day ago | parent [-]

> ignorant enough

Might not be ignorance. There's still the strong possibility that "blackmail material" is floating around due to the island of one of Trumps old friends.

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ben_w a day ago | parent | next [-]

On the one hand, Trump's brazenness about basically everything makes it hard to see how anything could be effective blackmail.

On the other, he did deny the affair with Stormy Daniels, so perhaps he's easier to blackmail than I think he is?

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Gud a day ago | parent [-]

Donald Trump strikes me as a man who has done a lot of things in his life that is blackmail material.

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ben_w a day ago | parent [-]

Done, yes I agree, but it only counts as blackmail if he were responsive to the threat. That responsiveness is the only place where I'm uncertain.

	▲	Gud 20 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I'm sure he's done something he is very embarrassed about, some sexual fetish on record or something similar. I wouldn't put it past him to go to war to protect such secrets, if he can conceivably frame it as something positive.

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Schmerika a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Also, let us never forget that the Epstein class are extremely skilled, and experienced, in making money off of things going to shit.

▲ ares623 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes. Unfortunately for majority of voters, unless it impacts them directly they won't believe it.

I hope countries (or rather, voters) around the world are waking up to just how helplessly dependent they are on a resource they do not own and have to beg and scrape from others.

▲ mgkimsal a day ago | parent | next [-]

> unless it impacts them directly they won't believe it.

They may end up believing they are being impacted, but many will still deny or argue the root cause.

▲ fortedoesnthack a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The USA is a net exporter so technically if export restrictions are put up the Americans will likely be fine. The rest of the world, not so much. I live in Japan and I'm definitely worried about the rest of the year.

	▲	JumpCrisscross a day ago \| parent [-]
		> technically if export restrictions are put up the Americans will likely be fine Technically no. The oil we export isn’t a fit for the oil we refine. We’re slaved to the global market, though our exports do give us a tool. (Unfortunately, it requires taxing oil production (since we can’t tax exports [1]) to pay for, ideally, a monthly cheque to every American, and less ideally, a refiner credit to push down domestic gas prices. [1] https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S9-C5-1/...

▲ JumpCrisscross a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Do we have evidence of polls moving in favour of renewables?

	▲	defrost a day ago \| parent [-]
		Sure. Pakistan is a slam dunk for renewables, it's ground swell and up there given the lack of decent state level delivery infrastructure. It's a similar story across much of the developed world, easy to build out renewables from the ground up and good deals from China for countries of interest to the Belt and Road intititives. In Australia: `73% support renewables and batteries as the fastest way to lower people's power bills, compared to just 16% for nuclear reactors and 8% for new coal power` and `In 2018, 84% of Australians said the government should focus on renewables, even if we need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable.` are typical bites from leading poll agencies. In the USofA ... dunno, that's more your sandbox - I suspect many hearts and minds have been captured by 50 years of the Koch Bros dunking on AGW and public transport leading to a broad excess of rolling coal types being mind tweakled by the Heritage Foundation and / or Taylor Sheridans Landman windmill rants, etc.

▲ epolanski a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's not just about Iran, it's about exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric war.

You can outgun by far your opponents, and yet they can find cheap and effective ways to make you bleed in ways you cannot sustain for long.

This was already visible in Ukraine, where minor investments on Ukrainian side (like sabotaging gas pipelines, oil refineries or production plants) can lead to magnitude of orders outsized impacts on the war economy (and economy in general) for years.

Now Iran's showing how gargantuan has to be the US' and Israeli effort to prevent a major and long lasting choke on world economy that can be threatened by few dudes with a handful of drones/divers or small boats.

	▲	cmxch 7 hours ago \| parent [-]
		That’s when you scale up the weaponry on Iran to make economics based attacks useless. What good is a cheap drone if the operators aren’t just dead, but wiped from the Earth? Assuming the drone hasn’t been destroyed too, it sits idle. Or redeployed by American forces against the IRGC. A glassed Iran and $50 oil is more preferred than to have $200 oil and environmentalists backed by Chinese money dictate my life.

▲ Barrin92 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

tbf I think the 'normie' world already believed that given that the president currently in charge ... campaigned on avoiding more wars. Not that anything makes a lot of sense these days but I still remember the atmosphere around the Iraq war when you had the 'freedom fries' and 'if you're not with us you're against us', rhetoric.

Now there seems to be virtually no patriotic sentiment except for the face-keeping from officials and some hardcore supporters who just repeat anything. But many Americans seem utterly confused.

	▲	rixed a day ago \| parent \| next [-]
		For the record, Bush the 2nd also campaigned on non interventionism.
	▲	tonyedgecombe a day ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		>But many Americans seem utterly confused. Isn't that part of the plan.