> This was the same before, if you had a novel idea and make a product out of it others follow. Especially for LLMs, they are not (till now) learning on the fly. Claude Opus 4.6 knowledge cut off was August 2025, so every idea you type in after this date is in the training data but not available, so you only have to be fast enough. Especially LLMs/AI-Agents like Claude enable this speed you need for bringing out something new.

You have a point about the update intervals and the higher speed they provide to developers. But you are talking about now, and I was making a thought experiment - about a potential future. LLM-s are not learning on the fly, but I suspect they do log the conversations, their responses and could also deduce from further interaction if a particular response was satisfactory to the user. So in a world where available training data is drying up, nobody is throwing all this away. Gemini even has direct upvote/downvote on responses. Algorithms will probably improve, and the intervals will probably shorten.

Given the detailed information that all the back and forwards generate - I think it's not hard to use similar technology to track underlying trends, get all the problems associated with them and all the solution space that is talked about - and generate the solution before even the ones who thought of it release it. Theoretically :)

I think the open development will become less open. I don't like it - but I think it's already happening. First - all the blogs and forums moved to specialized platforms (SO, discords, ..) and now event some of those are d(r)ying. If people (in extreme cases) don't even read the code they produce, why would they read about the code, discuss the code, that's not even in their care. That is without the theoretical fear of the global Borg slurping all they write.