euro doesn't have enough volume. yuan has very strict domestic price controls so its a weird risk to take. (you could get insta-fucked, way harder than dollar inflation mismanagement, if china suddenly allows its citizens to move money)

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jazzypants a day ago | parent | next [-]

This is why I said "decade" and not a shorter time frame. We're in the midst of some extraordinary times where things will shift quickly out of pure exigency. It's pretty clear that nothing can replace the dollar overnight, but most of the classic arguments in favor of it (stability , American military, etc.) are rapidly becoming obsolete.

This stuff is already happening. American Dollars have fallen from 66% of world currency reserves in 2016 to 56% last year and it's still going down. [0]

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petro...

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maxglute a day ago | parent | prev [-]

If the water merchant in the desert wants to charge in blowjobs, people going to starting giving blowjobs. 30% Hormuz oil is not short/medium term substitutable, if Iran can enforce (big if) Petro yuan then we get Petro yuan. USD already demonstrated proven instafuck instruments, the limitation of Petro yuan id access since most have trade surplus with PRC who isn't going to print because they don't want reserve/triffin drama. They'll likely do something like panda bonds, i.e. vip trusted loans because petro yuan =/= reserve where everyone qualifies, much better system is only buyers PRC trusts gets access.

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dnautics 16 hours ago | parent [-]

if yuan goes oil denominated and appreciates in value, China's manufacturing advantage from low labor prices evaporates and china knows this. things are already bad in china due to low demand (workers burning factories since they are not getting paid -- look up "brother 800")

	▲	maxglute 16 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Currency appreciates due to printing / supply. Hence I specifically highlighted petro-yuan =/= reserve currency. PRC not going to be brrrrting yuan to replace USD liquidity. PRC simply going to extend yuan swap lines to trusted petro-yuan users, it's not going to fuck with reserve triffin dilemma. Thing are fine in PRC, exports higher than ever, some sectors getting shafted vs others, but strategic ones, i.e. not low end textile like brother 800 but intermediary goods doing better than ever. BTW side effect of high oil prices is PRC coal to petchem stack for industry just give 2/3 of PRC industry 50% input discount vs everyone else. Now global demand going to fall if high energy price persist, but PRC poised to capture more share simply being even more competitive producer, if not only producer with regular/prioirty access to hormuz energy.