First, you have to define "AGI".

Next, you have to have a clear path to reaching it.

Then, you have to have the resources to actually walk that path.

Only with all three of those can you make any credible claim that AGI is near.

As it stands, we have none of them—and the lack of the second is the most damning. It's very, very clear at this point that just scaling up the existing LLMs is not going to reach some critical mass and result in AGI, like the serendipitous sapience of Mycroft in The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress.

Given that, any path to AGI necessarily includes some new breakthrough on it (or more than one). And by their essential nature, breakthroughs are not something you can predict or schedule. Indeed, you cannot even be guaranteed that they will ever happen. (It is likely, assuming that it is physically possible to build AGI, that we will figure out how at some point...but not guaranteed.)