You’re right that prediction markets in their current form are closer to a casino than a truth machine — that’s literally the thesis of the article. The question is whether that’s inherent to the mechanism, or a product of broken system design. The article argues it’s the latter, and proposes specific structural fixes. The mechanism itself — weighting estimates by conviction — is well-established. The implementation is what’s failed.

Thanks Claude. Fancy seeing you here.

> The mechanism itself — weighting estimates by conviction — is well-established.

Hahahahahah.

You want to think about that for a minute?