You're missing that the impact is not evenly distributed. It doesn't mean everyone gets 25% less petrol, tighten the belt a little bit, take one fewer trip to starbucks, and all is well.

It means rich countries get the 75% while the poor countries get nothing and starve. What happens when a nuclear power like India starts to lack food?

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roenxi a day ago | parent [-]

> What happens when a nuclear power like India starts to lack food?

Personally I think that actually seems a bit unlikely. Most of India's energy doesn't come from oil and doesn't go to agriculture. It seems plausible that the global economy will be able to overcome the food and fertiliser issues even in the short term, there is a lot of food out there.

I'm expecting the threat to be more complex economic goods like construction, manufactured goods, leisure and general logistics. I don't want to downplay the risk, famine in India is a scary thought, but I don't really see how we'd get there from closing the Strait of Hormuz without a lot of bad luck. The problem is it is going to materially impoverish a number of people and collapse complex supply chains rather than make it hard to get food to them.

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lbreakjai a day ago | parent [-]

Food quantity has never been the issue. The logistics are. Food is the most direct issue, but "just" the economic turmoil alone is reason enough to worry. No one was starving in the Weimar republic, yet ...

	▲	roenxi a day ago \| parent [-]
		The logistics of food don't seem to be under any particular threat. The petrol required to get someone survival calories is not so much and the vast majority of traffic on the road is not about getting basic calories to people. I don't think any of the world's nuclear states would struggle to overcome that problem right now.