> Russia: this crisis will probably force the West to make peace with Russia and they'll retain any current Ukrainian territory just to secure Russian energy exports, particularly natural gas;

The West is not the only party in this war and Ukraine has shown many times that it can do its own thing. Ukraine was supposed to roll over and die in 3 days and it has just managed to liberate about 500sqkm of territory, 4 years after the start of the war. Plus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22xoretdhbm

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jmyeet a day ago | parent [-]

Ukraine is completely dependent on arms from the US and Europe to sustain the war effort. Ukraine is running out of men to serve in the Army. Ukraine has no path to reclaim the territory it's lost.

I'm not making a judgment about whether or not this is right. This is just a sober analysis of the situation. And that is that the war is stalemated and the only way this gets resolved is to declare peace at the current borders. This grand misadventure by the US and Israel in Iran just made that more likely.

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onlypassingthru a day ago | parent | next [-]

>Ukraine is running out of men to serve in the Army.

Ukraine has made some remarkable achievements lately in doing more with less while Russia seems to be perfecting how to do less with more.

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oblio a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Your sober analysis of the situation overlooks what many respectable analysts are saying.

Ukraine has become probably the de facto #1 drone based military in the world right now.

It's made the first production use drone type that uses practically 0 Chinese manufactured components. It's making more types that use off the shelf components but are otherwise 100% Ukrainian made. Its drone types are getting more and more sophisticated and larger, with the biggest having a 3000km, 1 ton payload. That's besides the ground or sea drones.

Watch the video I linked (and several more from the same channel if you have time).

Also Russia's army is being attrited faster than reconstituted, at the moment. That's a long way to say that the Russian army in Ukraine is shrinking.

Ukraine is dependent on European finances. And the EU has guaranteed funding for at least 2 more years. The US isn't helping with any equipment, weapons. Every US weapons Ukraine uses is paid for, by Ukraine and its allies.

The real danger is if Europe flinches, which would be a monumentally bad decision as Ukraine is finally winning the war of attrition.

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jmyeet a day ago | parent [-]

> Ukraine has become probably the de facto #1 drone based military in the world right now.

I think Iran may well have that crown. Ukraine certainly was a testbed for drone use, first starting with cheaper but still military grades drones like the Bayraktar [1] but now with more homegrown versions. But Russia has followed suite and adapted.

> Also Russia's army is being attrited faster than reconstituted,

Russia has a larger army and a larger population. It also has several knobs it can adjust with the biiannual draft [2]. Russia has oil, raw materials, can produce its own food, a history of conscription and what is basically a war economy [3]. And thanks to an unlucky spate of oligarchs falling out of windows and dying in car accidents, Putin is still in control of the country.

Zellensky on the other hand doesn't have most of those things and is subject to the changes in political winds in Europe and the US. He also has the added pressure of Europe's energy crisis.

I also believe that it was Ukraine who on their own decided to blow up Nordstream to prevent Europe settling with Russia to turn back on the gas supply.

> The real danger is if Europe flinches, which would be a monumentally bad decision as Ukraine is finally winning the war of attrition.

The West gets bored amd impatient. I remember thinking this in 2023: Putin is just going to hold on until the West gives up or mores onto some new crisis. There's a quote misattributed to Kissinger that goes "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."

I also don't agree Ukraine is winning any war, let alone one of attrition. Weirdly, this has become a WW1 trench war basically but with drones. And look at how the Western Front changed from 1914 to 1917.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_TB2

[2]: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/05/russia-planned-war-...

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_economy

	▲	oblio a day ago \| parent [-]
		You are so far behind the news that it's funny. Bayraktar stopped being good in this war - or cutting edge - about 3 years ago, which is an eternity. Do yourself a favor and ask your favorite chatbot about the Ukraine drone industry and their military use. Ask about FP-1, FP-2, FP-5 Flamingo, Ukraine's ballistic missiles, their ground drones, their naval drones, their Shahed interceptor drones (which the Gulf States want to buy!), fiber optic FPV drones, etc. I'm actually following this war daily and have followed since it started. Use your chatbot and if you want more look for Paul Warburg, Lines on Maps (both YouTube), UnderstandingWar.org, etc - also follow their sources. Regular people have NO idea what kind of military Ukraine has built. If Ukraine's economy is supported for 2 more years, their odds of bringing down the Russian military are probably 80%.