Im starting to believe that the biggest moats will be in the application layer, and that people are starting to realize traditional saas moats apply to those companies too

network effects, distribution, proprietary data, systems of record

companies like opencode have none of the above

cursor's distribution has been faltering and they're hard pivoting to training their own models with their proprietary data to try to build their moat back

The network effects and distribution moats are subject to the same erosion. proprietary data less so. Systems of record the least so. The real value-add over the next decades is gonna be around providing "stability". In multiple domains, from service stability to cultural stability. The "disruption" formula will be flipped on it's head, and ppl will be motivated to "move slow and fix things".

Exactly this. Also global sales and marketing and support.