| ▲ | zovirl 3 hours ago | |
With enough cash on the line, humans are very resourceful at manipulating outcomes. Humans already control the weather: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding. We already have an example of humans sabotaging the measurement of weather: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41684440. Two ranchers sabotaged weather monitoring stations in order to fraudulently collect millions in drought insurance. One of the farmhands involved ended up dead. And we have an example of prediction markets attempting to manipulate reporting of events: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822. I have a hard time believing weather prediction markets will be net beneficial. The incentive for sabotage & manipulation up and down the chain seems likely to lead to worse weather predictions overall. | ||
| ▲ | cubefox an hour ago | parent [-] | |
Funny, downthread there is actually a report of someone experiencing manipulation of weather prediction markets: | ||