All this fearmongering about decision markets lately is really annoying. If you don't like gambling — just don't gamble and shut the fuck up. It's not for you to decide if gambling is good or bad for me. If I am stupid enough to bet anything on an outcome that clearly depends on a person who could, potentially, be betting as well — it's my problem, not yours.

I've been active and profitably trading in prediction markets for a long time now, but I think this perspective is also not helpful.

Prediction markets exist within the laws and institutions of society to be able to function, and the public should debate and discuss how they're regulated. Problem gamblers do present a negative externality where third parties can bear the cost, especially when they have dependents.

That’s not what people are worried about, it’s the rigging of real world events (including wars!) that has people worried.

Gambling outside of equities and securities is a negative externality. (Investment in startups, goods, etc. makes the economy spin. Investing in what hoop a ball goes through does no good at all.)

This puts plenty of people who shouldn't gamble into debt and lowers their societal fitness.

The other side of the gamble is probably losing on average too. Only the house and infrequent insiders win.

These private companies are fleecing our economy's dynamicity without reinvesting it in aligned positive externalities.

It's a cancer.

At least the lottery goes to education, in theory. My college was subsidized by the lotto, so there's that.

Kalshi and PolyMarket aren't doing anything positive.