Who is to say if it rained or not? Well now they are a target.

A NY Times reporter was the target of a pressure and threat campaign to change their reporting over whether a rocket in the middle east was intercepted or not before it hit the ground.

Prediction markets are not going to end well full stop IMHO.

That was a Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian [1] but your point stands.

Prediction markets create incentives to predict the outcome of an event, which can be done in one of three ways: develop better models to predict the event, affect the event, or affect the reporting on the event.

[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-o...