I guess, though, the actual “solar” part of the solar set up is by far the cheapest part.

The vast majority of the set up costs are just getting electrification done right.

Like, even if LNG becomes crazy cheap, a battery set up will still save you money in the long run just by allowing off-peak demand.

This is why I’m confused: for this to me remotely a bad investment, basically everything possible has to go wrong for you, whereas the risks associated with carbon energy production are very obvious and very likely.

Do you have some more likely counter scenario?

> even if LNG becomes crazy cheap, a battery set up will still save you money in the long run just by allowing off-peak demand

See Uruguay. Bet heavily on renewables [1]. Baked in a high cost [2].

If LNG becomes crazy cheap and you're stuck with expensive solar and battery, the countries with cheaper power will eat your industry. On a household level, you wasted money. The alternate you who didn't put money into the solar and battery set-up could have earned more from other investments and had cheaper power.

Put another way: if you remove the decommissioning costs, the same argument could be used for nuclear. Once you've built it, it's sort of "free." Except of course it's not. Building it took a lot of work.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Uruguay#Electricity

[2] https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Uruguay/electricity_price...