Already enough comments about base rate fallacy, so instead I'll say I'm worried for the future of GitHub.

Its business is underpinned by pre-AI assumptions about usage that, based on its recent instability, I suspect is being invalidated by surges in AI-produced code and commits.

I'm worried, at some point, they'll be forced to take an unpopular stance and either restrict free usage tiers or restrict AI somehow. I'm unsure how they'll evolve.

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blitzar 5 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Counterpoint: Ai without GitHub is like performing a stunt where you set yourself on fire but without a fire crew to put it out

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louiereederson 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The instability is related to their Azure migration isn't it? Cynically you could say it hasn't been helped by the rolling RIFs at Microsoft

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progmetaldev an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I keep hearing this, and I know Azure has had some issues recently, but I rarely have an issue with Azure like I do with GitHub. I have close to 100 websites on Azure, running on .NET, mostly on Azure App Service (some on Windows 2016 VMs). These sites don't see the type of traffic or amount of features that GitHub has, but if we're talking about Azure being the issue, I'm wondering if I just don't see this because there aren't enough people dependent on these sites compared to GitHub?

Or instead, is it mistakes being made migrating to Azure, rather than Azure being the actual problem? Changing providers can be difficult, especially if you relied on any proprietary services from the old provider.

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madeofpalk 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Does anyone actually know? So far I've just seen people guessing, and seeing that repeated.

	▲	pojzon an hour ago \| parent [-]
		I dont believe sudden influx of few million bots running 24/7 generating PRa and commits and invoking actions does not impact GitHub. It even sounds silly when you say it this way.

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petcat an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In a (possibly near) future where most new code is generated by AI bots, the code itself becomes incidental/commodotized and it's nothing more than an intermediate representation (IR) of whatever solution it was prompt-engineered to produce. The value will come from the proposals, reviews, and specifications that caused that code to be produced.

Github is still code-centric with issues and discussions being auxilliary/supporting features around the code. At some point those will become the frontline features, and the code will become secondary.

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philipp-gayret an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Having managed GitHub enterprises for thousands of developers who will ping you at the first sign of instability.. I can tell you there has not been one year pre-AI where GitHub was fully "stable" for a month or maybe even a week, and except for that one time with Cocoapods that downtime has always been their own doing.

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hungryhobbit 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Or they'll just keep forcing policies that let them steal the code you post on GitHub (for their AI training), and make everyone leave that way.

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phantomCupcake 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This.

But also, GitHub profiles and repos were at one point a window into specific developers - like a social site for coders. Now it's suffering from the same problem that social media sites suffer from - AI-slop and unreliable signals about developers. Maybe that doesn't matter so much if writing code isn't as valuable anymore.

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ekjhgkejhgk an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Fuck GitHub. It's a corporate attempt at owning git by sprinkling socials on top. I hope it fails.

If you need to host git + a nice gui (as opposed to needing to promote your shit) Forgejo is free software.