there is no way the USMC would be able to hold Kharg and the buffer zone without extensive casualties. the buffer zone would be a full-fledged combat zone, non-stop. you'd see Ukraine-at-its-worst levels of drone strikes, and the US military is not equipped to deal with that, not yet.

the Iranian missile stockpile may be drained thin, but their army and conventional equipment surpluses could absolutely maintain a consistent and aggressive pushback.

> Their only possible reaction would be to bombard troops there, destroying their own export infrastructure in the process.

it's already destroyed mate. and keeping it up and running would be a tall order when the Iranians are right there.

> ~50% of the revenue to pay the Iranian military comes from oil exports.

this is a country that convinced children to charge through minefields during Iran-Iraq; you think pay is going to stop them? or that China and Russia wouldn't give them ample weapons?

there is no winning play here

> could absolutely maintain a consistent and aggressive pushback

With 30+ km systems launchedu from flat terrain, right onshore of US air power? That's the limit of 155mm conventional, and Iran isn't launching gold-plated Excalibur rounds.

That means rocket artillery, either in unguided mode (see next point) or SRBM (of which they don't have an unlimited supply).

Enabling drone strikes at 30+ km over water against US EW looks very different than terrestrial Ukraine too.

> it's already destroyed mate

Citation-needed that the oil infrastructure on Kharg was destroyed.

> this is a country that convinced children to charge through minefields during Iran-Iraq

I expect the zeal of modern Iranian youth for the revolution is dimmed from 1980.