Everyone knew the Iranians would close the strait and that it would take time to re-open it. That was the price the administration was willing to pay. Put differently, the regime's traditional deterrence did not work against this administration. You seem to think the administration would not have done this thing with what we know now. What makes you think that?

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PowerElectronix an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Trump is quoted saying that Iran would surrender or be pverthrown way before they would close the strait.

This operation was cobbled together between Trump, Hegseth, Rubio and Vance without consulting anyone outside that circle. The way they have been selling it, espwcially the strait stuff, smells of unplanned developements all around.

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sysguest 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

yeah I did expect US to know all those things...

but what I did NOT expect, is how Iran regime would choose strategically suicidal options just to "feel good"

missile-rambo even on non-combatant countries? that'll trigger self-defense attacks...

$2M per voyage? woah... the stait-users don't have a choice, but "make an example out of" iran...

I mean, iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus), and bring that "missle interception rate" down to 40%.

Now what did iran gain from shooting everyone? making more enemies, and showing your weaknesses (96% missile interception rate, even from UAE? wtf...)

don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Trump was right on starting the war. I actually think what the fk was he thinking back then...

I'm just saying even if you're angry and desperate, there are wise choices and dumb choices

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rurp 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I disagree. Even though I think the Iranian regime has been extremely incompetent overall their war strategy has been surprisingly lucid. They aren't actually risking much more by attacking neighboring countries that are already cooperating with the US. How much is Qatar's military involvement going to move the needle when you're already facing a full-on war with the US and Israel?

Raising the overall costs to the US and its allies is a pretty coherent theory of victory for Iran. Obviously they aren't going to win a conventional fight, but they might be able to inflict enough havoc on energy and commodity markets to the point that it really hurts the US and its allies economically; perhaps enough that they bail out of the war in order to stabilize the global economy.

Trump clearly wanted a quick easy win here and does not want to see massive inflation at home. Sure he personally doesn't give a shit about Americans but the rest of the politicians who enable him do and he's at risk of absolutely torching his own party for years if the war drags on and costs really get out of hand.

All the Iranian regime has to do to win is not lose for enough weeks. If the regime holds out Trump will have to either give up and try to pretend this disaster was a Great Victory, or he'll launch a ground invasion that will almost certainly turn into a quagmire. Bombing civilians makes a popular uprising much less likely, so the US is doing them quite a favor on that front.

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samus 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Gulf states are not any more willing than the USA at invading Iran with ground troops. The only thing that changes by making them angry is that slightly more missiles fly into Iran. Which is already accounted for and won't magically reopen the strait.

	▲	Pay08 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Actually, Saudi Arabia might get involved.

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breve 24 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Iran should have just shot israel with all its missiles (select and focus)

Iran has deliberately escalated the war horizontally to create a bigger mess and to make the military adventure more expensive for America and the world.

Iran is saying, "If you attack us, these are the costs."

As an invading military, you're either willing to pay those costs or you're not.

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watwut an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Iran did not made more ennemies. It attacked countries that did not liked Iran and hosted American assets.

They are easier to hit and harder to defend then Israel. That is depleting defense forces more.

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3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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