> The Iranians would probably call that a victory, and probably not pursue further retaliation.

I highly doubt it. Here are the facts from the viewpoint of Iran:

- The US and the UK overthrew the democratic iranian government of Mohammad Mosaddegh

- The US terminated the working nuclear deal.

- The US ambushed Iran twice in the midst of ongoing negotiations.

- Israel is on a conquest to annex new land and to rule over the middle east. At least that is likely there goal.

Iran clearly stated their demands. The US should pay up for the damage they caused and the US should give up its military bases in the Arab countries.

While the money will probably not be that big of a problem to negotiate, the military bases will be. At least Iran will insist on something substantive that guarantees that they are not ambushed a third time.

you also left out all of the now-burning Middle Eastern powers, all of whom also hate Iran, and who won't just go away.

The US can take their ball and go home to a different hemisphere, but ME violence will continue.

IMO the real question is how long the Arabs will let Israel dictate their foreign policy via the US

- Israel killed Irans negotiations last year as well.

But from the non-Iranian point of view, those countries want those bases to protect them against Iran. So that's going to be problematic.

I mean, the US could unilaterally decide "no, we're not going to defend the Middle East anymore, good luck everybody" and leave. But it's not like the US is oppressing, say, Qatar by having a base there. They willingly let the US stay there.