> Next I'm going to set it loose on 263 GB database of every stock quote and options trade in the past 4 years. I bet it achieves successful trading strategies.

I bet it doesn't achieve a single successful (long term) trading strategy for FUTURE trades. Easy to derive a successful trading strategy on historical data, but so naive to think that such a strategy will continue to be successful in the long term into the future.

If you do, come back to me and I’ll will give you one million USD to use it - I kid you not. Only condition is your successful future trading strategy must solely be based on historical data.

Let us perform a thought experiment. You do this. Many others, enthusiastic about both LLMs, and stocks/options, have similar ideas. Do these trading strategies interfere with each other? Does this group of people leveraging Claude for trading end up doing better in the market than those not? What are your benchmarks for success, say, a year into it? Do you have a specific edge in mind which you can leverage, that others cannot?

Agent mania is a subset of AI mania, it's interesting to see which it is that makes a person crack

cringe

Where is 263 GB database of every stock quote and options trade in the past 4 years?

Comments like this should include how much $$$ you spend on tokens.

"AGI" is not what you think it is.

you can have it build an execution engine that interfaces with any broker with minimal effort.

how do you have it build a "trading strategy"? it's like asking it to draw you the "best picture".

it will ask you so many questions you end up building the thing yourself.

if you do get something, given that you didn't write it and might not understand how to interpret the data its using - how will you know whether it's trading alpha or trading risk?

Classic AI psychosis, you can do it with a single prompt, etc. etc.

If you find such a db with options, it will find "successful trading strategies". It will employ overnight gapping, momentum fades, it will try various option deltas likely to work. Maybe it will find something that reduces overall volatility compared to beta, and you can leverage it to your heart's content.

Unfortunately, it won't find anything new. More unfortunately, you probably need 6-10 years and do a walk forward to see if the overall method is trustworthy.

I'm curious. How does this coordination work? Do you have any notes that I can refer to?

> Next I'm going to set it loose on 263 GB database of every stock quote and options trade in the past 4 years.

Options quotes alone for US equities (or things that trades as such, like ADS/ADR) represent 40 Gbit per second during options trading hours. There are more than 60 million trades (not quotes, only trades) per day. As the stock market is opened approx 250 days per year (a bit more), that's more than 60 billion actual options trades in 4 years. If we're talking about quotation for options, you can add several orders of magnitude to these numbers.

And I only mentioned options. How do you store "every stock quote and options trade in the past 4 years" in 263 GB!?

Claude Code can't even succeed at programming. The idea of it turning into AGI is laughable.

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The bigger question is: does Anthropic have a big enough moat to matter?

I've used/use both, and find them pretty comparable, as far as the actual model backing the tool. That wasn't the case 9 months ago, but the world changes quickly.

I guess it would be too obvious a lie to say Codex is "the present"?

Wouldn't be a very good look if they did anything else.