Right so how are you going to find it and who is going to prosecute the insider trading here?

My point isn't that an unregulated prediction market (Polymarket non-US markets are non-CFTC certified) can obscure insider trading. My point is that Brent has enough liquidity that an insider can trade without moving markets. There's plenty of insiders that work on a contract basis and aren't required to disclose trades by STOCK Act provisions for public disclosure.

And honestly we aren't even out of the 45 day window around disclosures that would surface any Brent or WTI trades around the current Iran conflict anyway.

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cosmojg 18 hours ago | parent [-]

Also, isn't insider trading the whole point of prediction markets? They were originally conceptualized as information aggregators.

	▲	kasey_junk 18 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		People tend to use the term insider incorrectly. Even in cftc regulated markets it is unlikely that an admin official is an insider. What people are looking for is anti-corruption enforcement not market regulation. The problem isn’t that the admin is using advanced knowledge, all commodities trading involves that, it’s that the officials have an obligation to the public as part of their governmental service. Of course this admin _also_ gutted the anti-corruption offices in the government along with the market regulators.
	▲	munk-a 18 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		If they were then that memo got lost when it reached the general populace that sees them as a gambling vehicle. I think it'd be extremely reasonable if people with qualified access to information like this were banned from leveraging it on prediction markets. If someone has news they want to get out they can just use the media.