People who dedicate their lives to studying an industry, can get very good at being able to predict the probability of events in their domain.

These same people are commonly off by orders of magnitude when predicting the magnitude of these same events.

The author of this article won the "Toner Prize for Excellence in National Political Reporting". I'm going to infer from this, that he's better at political reporting, than he is at predicting the future of an entire industry.

And if he is truly convinced of this outcome, he should be shorting the airlines. (I'm gonna guess he hasn't done that).

(edit: syntax)