Probably 15 to 20 years, if ever. This phone is only running this model in the technical sense of running, but not in a practical sense. Ignore the 0.4tk/s, that's nothing. What's really makes this example bullshit is the fact that there is no way the phone has a enough ram to hold any reasonable amount of context for that model. Context requirements are not insignificant, and as the context grows, the speed of the output will be even slower.

Realistically you need +300GB/s fast access memory to the accelerator, with enough memory to fully hold at least greater than 4bit quants. That's at least 380GB of memory. You can gimmick a demo like this with an ssd, but the ssd is just not fast enough to meet the minim specs for anything more than showing off a neat trick on twitter.

The only hope for a handheld execution of a practical, and capable AI model is both an algorithmic breakthrough that does way more with less, and custom silicon designed for running that type of model. The transformer architecture is neat, but it's just not up for that task, and I doubt anyone's really going to want to build silicon for it.

> Realistically you need +300GB/s fast access memory to the accelerator, with enough memory to fully hold at least greater than 4bit quants.

The latest M5 MacBook Pro's start at 307 GB/s memory bandwidth, the 32-core GPU M5 Max gets 460 GB/s, and the 40-core M5 Max gets 614 GB/s. The CPU, GPU, and Neural Engine all share the memory.

The A19/A19 Pro in the current iPhone 17 line is essentially the same processor (minus the laptop and desktop features that aren’t needed for a phone), so it would seem we're not that far off from being able to run sophisticated AI models on a phone.