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drmikeando 2 hours ago

To me the neat bit isn't that it got the exponential decay right - that's pretty standard, its that it realised there were two different timescales for the decay and got ball-park numbers for them pretty well.

This is the kind of model you would expect from a simple cylindrical model of the coffee cup with some inbuilt heat capacity of its own.

However, those decay coefficients are going to be very dependent of the physical parameters of your coffee cup - in particular the geometry and thermal parameters of the porcelain. There's a lot of assumptions and variability to account for that the models will have to deal with.