| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 7 hours ago |
| Diego Garcia is strategically very important to global security according to the US Had something actually struck within the ADIZ there would have been massive implications. My guess is they intentionally failed as a warning shot. This isn’t a random act and its quite the signal if you know what it means, Iran knows what it did here. |
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| ▲ | noir_lord 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Would the Americans and Isreali’s start bombing mainland Iran and takin out their weapons and oil/gas infrastructure as retaliation?. |
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| ▲ | spaghetdefects 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Americans and Israelis literally started this war by bombing an Iranian girl's school. They've been bombing Iran every day since then. | | | |
| ▲ | chronic20001 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Would the Americans and Isreali’s start bombing mainland Iran and takin out their weapons and oil/gas infrastructure as retaliation?. No that’s too easy. Give hope to Iran / Islamic world for a few months, then take it away. |
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| ▲ | visuhire 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I was reading that one of the two failed en route, and the other was intercepted. I don't think this was an intentional failure to hit. |
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| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Sometimes getting shot down is the goal or at least a test to see what kind of response you’ll get | | |
| ▲ | roughly 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Iran did the same before the conflict in response to prior Israeli attacks - the two drone waves they sent that were intercepted were both demonstrations of capability, not actual attacks. Unfortunately I’m not sure their current audience is gonna pick up the implied threat. | | |
| ▲ | srean 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Iran even has a history of calling in their attacks to ensure no one gets hurt. I don't think they did it this time, but they have in the past. | |
| ▲ | picture 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | How do you know their intentions? It's also a bit unreasonable to launch live munitions that have some 90% probability of being intercepted by a given system on a good day, while intending for "just a warning" | | |
| ▲ | roughly 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > How do you know their intentions? Because they declared them loudly. When they launched the drone strikes on Israel, they gave Israel and the US warning time so they could be intercepted. The second time, they gave them much less warning time. The Iranians have a long history of negotiating loudly via their actions, which anyone who's spent any reasonable amount of time studying Iran knows and has seen in action. They're really not a mystery, they're very transparent, we just don't like what they're saying. | |
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It’s more like if David and Goliath are in a standoff David takes a small rock and whips it at a sensitive spot on Goliath’s ankles that most people don’t know about (Diego Garcia) David knows Goliath will probably dodge it, and most likely kick it away given it’s importance, but there’s a point being made by shooting: if it hits then that’s a win, but if gets knocked down it’s a warning that they know where they need to hit for it to hurt | | |
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| ▲ | Rebelgecko 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you're already at war, why waste resources on warning shots? |
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| ▲ | alephnerd 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > This isn’t a random act and its quite the signal if you know what it means, Iran knows what it did here. It also publicizes Iran-NK military cooperation on ballistics development, which the Biden admin warned about [0], as well as Iran-Russia military cooperation (which was obviously much less under-the-radar). It also shows the merger of the Ukraine conflict with the West Asia conflict, and was a major reason why Fiona Hill argued we entered an unavoidable polycrisis in 2022 [1]. [0] - https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/us-officia... [1] - https://xcancel.com/FrankRGardner/status/2027098560647348410... |
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| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Agreed, there’s so much intelligence in this act it’s really astonishing | | |
| ▲ | alephnerd 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yep. This action wasn't intended for the average HNer or Redditor to pontificate about. Those who they wanted to send a message to got the message, and it's a significant message up the escalation chain. Additionally, the fact that this is being very publicly disclosed and discussed in British media in a manner that RAF Akhrioti wasn't is also a massive signal. |
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