| ▲ | ericmay 2 days ago |
| > That's an opinion, not a fact. It’s not an opinion. You’re welcome to go read China’s own self-published strategic plans on this or a litany of news and policy journals discussing this. > This is way too expensive for something like that to last. How can you claim it’s too expensive if you’re claiming you don’t even buy that it’s happening?? > The rush to the bottom is already killing so many chinese automakers locally. The idea that they can sustain such an money bleed globally is plain asinine. Look at German automakers in China for a view of the future. As Chinese automakers compete and then consolidate they’ll raise prices of course but the level of competition and capacity build out will still have them underpricing other automakers due to economies of scale, cheap labor, and advanced manufacturing. They don’t need to sustain it really, globally they’re already poised to win which is why US, EU, Japan are going to have a lot of import controls, tariffs, and will utilize other tools to protect domestic industries. |
|
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 2 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| There are plenty of countries that lack domestic automotive production that are very OK using Chinese EVs. Nepal for example, is all in in Chinese EVs now since it’s people couldn’t afford much gas or ICEs before, and with some hydro investments (also aided by China), they can now better afford to buy (cheap Chinese EVs) and drive cars (cheap hydro). There are a hundred nepals out there that the western and Japanese countries aren’t going after. |
| |
| ▲ | ericmay 2 days ago | parent [-] | | There's nothing wrong with Chinese EVs (or any EVs) going to Nepal or something. China is closer, it's a tough country to get to, makes sense that China (or India perhaps) would be their primary supplier. | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Logistics through Tibet wasn’t really a thing until recently, China had to invest there. But it’s not just Nepal, it’s most of Africa, southeast asia, as well as Australia/NZ. China is literally creating markets for its products that simply didn’t exist at all before. | | |
| ▲ | ericmay 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Sure, though I'm not positive that's a good economic strategy outside of perhaps SE Asia. Market size in places like Africa, along with general instability presenting challenges has not made it a great place to invest, unless of course you have state backing and subsidies from, idk, China? But let's say China develops these markets and they can afford more cars. That's great. That means after China develops them, Western countries can come in and sell their cars too at China's developmental expense. Seems like a win-win all around. | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid a day ago | parent [-] | | Western countries don’t have a product to sell without protectionism. Look at Australia, a first word country by any measure but without an auto industry to protect has wholly embraced Chinese EVs. | | |
| ▲ | ericmay a day ago | parent [-] | | Could you summarize your larger point? I'm starting to get lost in what exactly we're talking about - my fault. | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid a day ago | parent [-] | | China is creating and making markets where they are allowed to create/make markets. The western auto manufacturers are turtling up via protectionism, and they are no longer aiming to compete on their products. | | |
| ▲ | ericmay 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | > China is creating and making markets where they are allowed to create/make markets. What's the median income in Africa, and how much is the cost of a new Chinese EV that is supposed to be sold in Africa? I'm not sure, do you happen to know? > The western auto manufacturers are turtling up via protectionism, and they are no longer aiming to compete on their products. Chinese automakers were/are subsidized by the CCP (including "investment" deals via Belt and Road), it's a response to that. Even today China requires joint ventures for western automakers to operate in China (to my knowledge). China already turtled up via protectionism. When you say western automakers aren't aiming to compete on their products what do you mean? The quality of the vehicles? Capabilities? Cost? All of the above? | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > What's the median income in Africa, and how much is the cost of a new Chinese EV that is supposed to be sold in Africa? I'm not sure, do you happen to know? Africans are poor but Chinese EVs are cheap. What’s more, they can earn more with better tools, like Chinese EVs and Chinese investments in green energy. If you’ve been to a bunch of poor countries you know how it works by now. Yes, $10k is a lot of money in those places, but it isn’t a horrible amount of money and is realistic for lots of non-rich people. > Chinese automakers were/are subsidized by the CCP (including "investment" deals via Belt and Road), it's a response to that. Even today China requires joint ventures for western automakers to operate in China (to my knowledge). China already turtled up via protectionism. Yes, thats definitely fair. But they didn’t turtle up, they innovated and developed new tech instead. The difference is that China used protectionism to catch up, the USA is using protectionism to…be lazy and dumb. Which one do you think will pay off? > When you say western automakers aren't aiming to compete on their products what do you mean? The quality of the vehicles? Capabilities? Cost? All of the above? Yes. Germany has the best bet of catching up, the American auto corps have been dying for a couple of decades now and are probably beyond help. Japan (not western, but usually included) made dumb bets on hydrogen that it still isn’t walking back. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | epolanski 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > It’s not an opinion. You’re welcome to go read China’s own self-published strategic plans on this or a litany of news and policy journals discussing this. I didn't say they don't prop their carmaking, battery or ev industries. I said that I don't buy the argument it's bad for us. > They don’t need to sustain it really, globally they’re already poised to win which is why US, EU, Japan are going to have a lot of import controls, tariffs, and will utilize other tools to protect domestic industries. Protectionism historically only helps industries in their earliest stages when you need to kickstart them, never when they are mature. At the end of the day western consumers and workers are always left with the bill if they cannot compete. It's us who will end up paying twice the amount for cars that aren't competitive, and don't have incentives to compete because they are protected anyway. You also need to understand I'm European. Not American. German/Italian economies are strongly export dependent. Exports amount for 50% of german economy and 30%+ of Italian one. Protecting internal markets achieves little to nothing, which is why Germany and Italy were among those less willing to tariff chinese cars. US has a giant internal market and is not a good exporting economy, it's core exports are financial and IT services. |
| |
| ▲ | ericmay 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > I didn't say they don't prop their carmaking, battery or ev industries. I said that I don't buy the argument it's bad for us. And I explained why it was bad for us. > Protectionism historically only helps industries in their earliest stages when you need to kickstart them, never when they are mature. Never is a strong word. You're assuming that the Chinese EV industry isn't still in the kickstarting stages. The goal is to, via subsidies and capability to deindustrialize other parts of the world. Through that lens you can see their actions quite clearly. As a European you should be particularly worried if you value labor. When you say things like German and Italian economies are export dependent it begs the question: what happens when those exports to their #1/#2 export market (China) collapse, and then China - because as you said of course Germany and Italy aren't willing to tariff Chinese cars - comes in to the EU and then outcompetes German and Italian automakers too? What does that leave you with? It leaves you with: China - dominating EV sales and a massive player in the auto market.
America - protected domestic industry that's not reliant on exports, little to no competition from China
Japan - serving US/EU global markets and protecting domestic industries
Europe - Collapse of industrial capacity to make vehicles, maybe with tariffs or import controls will have workers at Chinese factories making cars (with profits and capital of course heading back to the home market). Follows the British model a bit with focus on luxury automobiles (Ferrari, Aston Martin, things like that)
I hear your point about subsidies in American and European markets and how regular people are "left with the bill", but that's mostly because regulators and those working in government are incompetent, by and large, not because there aren't actions one can take. China serves as a clear counter example. And then you could also look at other countries and steps they've taken to shore up their domestic industries or otherwise. | |
| ▲ | pqtyw a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Exports amount for 50% of german economy and 30%+ of Italian one. And in China its barely 20%. But most of German and Italian exports go to other EU countries so its not exactly a fair comparison. Not quite the same but not that different to trade between different US states. | | |
|
