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thyristan 2 days ago

Western car makers learned the hard lesson that, at least in most of Europe, electricity prices are far too high, EV prices are too high, and customers do know how to use their calculators. In Germany, the only thing propping up the EV market are tax subsidies for commercially used EVs, so company cars are very likely to be EV or at least hybrid. For the rest of sales? Only idealists buy EVs, and then only those with deeper pockets, their own home charger, etc.

The current third oil crisis won't change much in this picture, because while fossil fuel prices have gone up, electricity prices are also starting to react and rise. That's because electricity demand rises, some industrial users can either use electricity or gas. And because gas prices are rising, which influence a small but very important part of electricity generation: on-demand gas power plants, that smooth out the sharp variations in renewable generation and demand.

And in the one important area of EV construction that makes a real difference, batteries, they tried and failed horribly. Everything else isn't really that special or EV-specific. So this winding down is just admitting that they already failed when the likes of Northvolt went boom. And the imho realistic assumption that production lines can be changed again if EVs should see more demand in the future. After all, some car brands to produce EVs, hybrids and ICE cars on the same line even now.

DennisP 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Electricity costs more in Europe than the US, but so does gasoline, by about the same ratio. EVs in the US have lower running costs than internal combustion cars.

The EV industry in general is growing quite well in Europe. It's just that China is capturing the biggest share of that growth.

sjducb a day ago | parent [-]

EVs are more expensive in total.

The Volvo XC90 EV is about 90k the petrol equivalent is 60k

Then if you drive 100,000 miles in it you’ll spend £20,000 on petrol.

100000 miles / 32 mpg = 3125 gal 3125 × 4.546 L = 14206 L 14206 L × £1.45/L = £20598.70 ≈ £20.6k total petrol cost

Even with free electricity petrol wins on cost.

If you buy the car used then the story changes.

DennisP 16 hours ago | parent [-]

I just said that China is taking the biggest share of the market, and you counter with the price of a Volvo? Prices are the biggest advantage of the Chinese models. BYD for example has the Dolphin compact at £30K, Atto 3 SUV at £38K, and Seal sports car at £46K.[1]

BMW is coming on strong though, and gives us close equivalents to compare. The 2027 i3 is supposed to start at $53K according to Car and Driver,[2] and Edmunds agrees.[3] It's all-wheel drive with fast bidirectional charging, 440 miles EPA range, 463 horsepower, and plenty of high-tech features. By comparison, the gas-powered all-wheel drive 3-series starts at $50K, and has 255 horsepower.[4] The M340i has 386hp and starts at $62K, and if you want more power then you'll be up into the 70s or more.[5]

For SUVs you could compare their iX3, coming out this summer, with the gasoline-powered X3. The M50 X3 at 393hp costs $67K, and the iX3 at 463hp will start at about $60K, with a 400 mile EPA range.[7]

[1] https://v2charge.com/byd-car-pricing-electric-hybrid-cars/

[2] https://www.caranddriver.com/bmw/i3

[3] https://www.edmunds.com/bmw/i3/

[4] https://www.bmwusa.com/build-your-own.html#/series/3/sedan

[5] https://www.bmwusa.com/build-your-own.html#/series/M3/sedan

[6] https://www.caranddriver.com/bmw/x3

[7] https://www.caranddriver.com/bmw/ix3

BoredPositron 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

French manufacturers, on the other hand, are experiencing a revival by prioritizing EVs and treating ICE vehicles as a secondary focus. If you look at the numbers across the Volkswagen Group (the entire AG, including Audi, Porsche, and Skoda), a clear trend emerges: the only brands currently in trouble are those that abandoned an EV first approach.

Skoda and Cupra are thriving, and it’s not just because of their affordability. They are steadily increasing their EV sales percentages while heavily promoting them as first class citizens within their portfolios. Porsche, by contrast, is hitting roadblocks because they are trying to retrofit their new EV first models to accommodate ICE powertrains. Meanwhile, Volkswagen Nutzfahrzeuge just posted their best quarter ever, driven specifically by their ICE lineup.

The main problem for German automakers was losing their core identity by chasing a "Modern Luxury" business model prioritizing low sales volume in exchange for high per unit margins. Electricity prices are simply not a factor in their demise.

campl3r 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'd love to see that math

cmurphycode a day ago | parent [-]

https://cmurphycode.com/electricity

Not Europe, but unfortunately, my state of Massachusetts has terrible electric costs for complicated reasons, so I understand what the OP is saying. I had to keep explaining this to my friends in MA - I replaced a Prius with a Nissan Leaf and my running costs are far higher.

(note that these prices are yearly averages for the state selected, but you can also fill in your own values since things change)

Dylan16807 a day ago | parent [-]

> I understand what the OP is saying.

You understand what OP would be saying if most of Europe had gasoline for $3.50 a gallon. Put in $2/liter instead and the crossover goes from 29MPG to 62MPG.

cmurphycode 13 hours ago | parent [-]

well, that's what the input boxes are for :) I don't know what the electric OR or gas rate is for wherever that person lives. But I think even your example of $2/liter, is a good thing for folks to internalize: the extremely high gas prices in europe, AFTER a worldwide systemic shock, at $7.57/gallon is break-even with a Prius at 56MPG at German/Italian prices of $.4/kwhr. Electricity is expensive, and at least in my state, I'm not seeing a serious commitment to doing something about it.

baka367 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Oh please, it hit two euros a liter thanks to the orange turd

sparqlittlestar a day ago | parent [-]

In the Netherlands, its over €2,50