I agree with your take. It was obvious to my VP. It's not obvious to the rest of the enterprise (yet).

But I think it's just a matter of when not if.

My current guess at my slow fortune 500 is ~1-2 years before we see real employment impact.

Startups are happening now at least with my anecdotal conversations. Right now the discussion is more just slower growth than actually doing layoffs. That coin will flip at some point.