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legitster 9 hours ago

It's a country with a lot of guns. Police do regularly get shot at when raiding.

And police departments get sent videos of every officer death from around the country and regularly watch them for "training purposes". So it makes sense that they are in a constant state of paranoia.

dpark 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Police do regularly get shot at when raiding.

I wonder what the ratio of police deaths during no knock raids vs peacefully served search warrants.

I certainly believe that bursting through someone’s door with guns drawn is a high risk activity. It seems like maybe no one needed to do that in this case, though.

advisedwang 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> police deaths during no knock raids vs peacefully served search warrants

Would have to be a randomized trial because right now obviously police only peacefully serve warrants in situations that are already very unlikely to be violent.

rocqua 7 hours ago | parent [-]

There's likely natural experiments in cases where police was misinformed either way about the danger of the suspects being arrested.

mothballed 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I think the traffic stop paranoia stems from a couple high profile incidents like

(1) Brannan in Georgia

(2) Darian Jarrott executed after the feds/HSI setup a drug sting but use NMSP trooper as a sacrificial lamb and then mosie their way on over after for the aftermath.

[1] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Police_Shootout_-_De...

[2] https://youtu.be/NqxTf-Vz12o?t=475

I've seen police in online forums reference these a lot when any talks come up of toning down their immediate instinct to draw their guns.

Basically in the US the feds will use local/state police as a sacrifice and not tell them that they're part of a sting of armed violent criminals so they're basically getting set up by HSI etc on purpose for surprises.

dpark 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I’m not sure there’s a general trend of federal officers using state/local officers sacrificially, but no doubt these cases are hammered into officers’ minds over and over.

wat10000 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's worth pointing out that, while being a cop is a somewhat dangerous profession, it doesn't even crack the top 10. It's much more dangerous to be a tree trimmer, non-airline pilot, logger, roofer, etc. than it is to be a cop.

What's more, a significant portion of that danger comes from the fact that they're driving around a lot and spend a lot of time by the side of the road and that means they end up the victim of crashes while on the job. The biggest risk when conducting a traffic stop isn't the risk that the people you're stopping might decide to kill you, it's that some dumbass thinks his texting is more important than looking at the road, drifts onto the shoulder, and plows into you.

breakyerself 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Policing isn't in the top ten most dangerous jobs. It's usually listed around the 15-25th most dangerous job in the US. Many Americans including myself are regularly in more danger.

Also around 40% of police deaths are accidents.

breakyerself 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's also interesting to note that while violent crime and homicide in the United States have been declining for many years interpersonal violence has overtaken accidents as the leading cause of police on the job deaths.

It seems unlikely the cause of this is more violence among Americans. Since the overall rate is going down. It seems like changes in policing and attitudes and tactics have resulted in more officer deaths from interpersonal violence. Perhaps more de-escalation would save more police officers lives.

kej 7 hours ago | parent [-]

>interpersonal violence has overtaken accidents as the leading cause of police on the job deaths.

Do you have a source for this? Not trying to argue, I would genuinely like to read more.

breakyerself 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Upon closer inspection it seems it's more a result of decreasing accident rates than increasing homicide rates although that is a factor lately.

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-police-officers-die-i...

wat10000 6 hours ago | parent [-]

That gives a homicide rate for cops of about 7.5 per 100,000. That's a bit less than twice the US national average, and about on par with the overall murder rate in the Carolinas or Mississippi. Seems pretty good for a profession that would logically bring a substantially increased exposure to murderers.

legitster 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

To really emphasize this, car crashes are the top source of police deaths. Yet less than 50% of police use their seat belts.

The justification most give is that they may need to be able to quickly get out of a car and pull their gun in a confrontation.

The only way this makes sense is that

A) Police aren't being properly trained based on data

B) People have an irrational psychological fear of murder over other types of death

giantg2 6 hours ago | parent [-]

A is the likely part.

B isn't necessarily irrational. Many other types of death are at your own actions. Things like drinking alcohol, eating whatever you feel like, not exercising, doing drug, even driving, etc provide some self-identified "benefit" to the individual that they choose to partake. It's rationale that someone is more afraid of dying from an activity they recieve no benefit from than an activity they do.

EQmWgw87pw 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is such a common argument that’s basically a fallacy. Many of those dangerous jobs are dangerous because of human error. So it’s funny that you think 60% of deaths being on purpose is normal, what other job in the dangerous top 10 has 60% intentional deaths? Like seriously?

atmavatar 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's a common argument because police and their supporters regularly claim they need to roll up in tactical gear and treat every encounter with civilians like it's a life-and-death struggle because they have one of the most dangerous jobs, yet the truth is they have about an order of magnitude fewer workplace fatalities than roofers and loggers.

This is despite the fact that police regularly escalate their encounters, making them more dangerous for everyone, police included.

Maybe loggers need to start doing their jobs with miniguns like that scene in Predator.

dpark 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> So it’s funny

They didn’t say it’s funny.

If you have something meaningful to say, then say it. Don’t twist someone else’s words instead.

> human error

Choosing to train police to act with an “warrior mindset” instead of training for de-escalation seems like it could be classified as human error, too.

rocqua 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I think intentionally and willingly doing something whilst informed of the consequence doesn't count as human error. At least not in this context.

Though it would make more sense, since these humans are likely largely erroneous.

dpark 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I agree. It’s actually systemic error.

Tens of thousands of no-knock raids every year in the us is crazy stuff. In the early 80s the number was ~1500/year. More than an order of magnitude increase in no knock raids while violent crime has fallen.

martin_a 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> It's a country with a lot of guns. Police do regularly get shot at when raiding.

Call me naive, but I think this could be solved by stricter gun laws. Yes, bad guys might have guns, but that's the case everywhere around the world.

But being afraid that everybody could have a gun and use it against you while doing your work must clearly change something in your behaviour as a police officer... Why not calm down the whole situation by reducing the number of guns then...

qup 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You can hardly make stricter gun laws; we have a right to them in this country.

It's hard to limit the guns without infringing on the right of the people.

markdown 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> You can hardly make stricter gun laws; we have a right to them in this country. It's hard to limit the guns without infringing on the right of the people.

What an odd take. Gun rights weren't dictated by a burning bush. A group of 39 guys decided for everyone else that that right should exist a quarter of a millenium ago. A completely undemocratic system. Every citizen should have a say and if they will it, anything in the constitution can be amended or struck off.

maest 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Maybe that right is not worth the trade off

6 hours ago | parent | next [-]
[deleted]
mothballed 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Unless you change the culture it will be just like the drug war. Firearms familiarity and possession are a cultural rite of passage for ~most males in the USA and there is no way to regulate that in a way that meaningfully stops it short of perhaps large-scale death penalty.

Pretty much everyone in Europe that wants a gun can have one within a couple weeks, the reason they don't only has a little to do with the law.

wafflemaker 6 hours ago | parent [-]

To get a gun in Norway i need 6 months in a shooting sports club. And then can only take the gun with me for shooting exercise. Strictly prohibited to have a round chambered when not standing on the shooting lane. And then only after an order from the guy running the training.

somehnguy 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Most people, including myself, have no interest in jumping through such hoops to exercise a constitutionally protected right. We also value the ability to carry (mostly) anywhere we see fit for the purpose of defending ourselves in a worst case scenario.

maest an hour ago | parent [-]

Yes, the American cultural preference for guns is well established. The GP's point was that in most of the world guns are more restricted and people are doing just fine.

martin_a 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Again, a bit naive, but that actually sounds okay to me. You'll learn to use the gun responsibly and in a controlled manner. What else would you want to do with it and why?

mothballed 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Sure, but I could print a reliable firearm with ECM'd barrel and make ammunition within a couple weeks if I went to Norway and so could most of your citizens, just following FGC-9 and "but what about ammo" instruction guides. The law says 6 months but in practice that's not the limiting factor. And then with no problem chamber a round and walk around with it in a backpack. The same applies in most of EU; of course in someplace like France or Poland you can straight up buy a black powder revolver over the counter which although heavy works quite well for most self defense cases with a firearm.

The fact is if any particular Norwegian decides today they want a gun, criminal record or not, and they have very modest means by Norwegian standards they will have it within a few weeks, no problem at all. Of course in USA criminal have been found many times with these self-made guns, now quite reliable and accurate, but a great deal of culture here is people will bear arms no matter the prison sentence hanging over their head or what the law says, and that is the cultural issue you will run into trying to curb gun possession in America. The fact Norwegians don't I think has more to do is that they don't view gun's as integrally to their natural rights and cultural imperative as much as Americans do, the physical potentiality is there for them to bear arms roughly widely as Americans do even without a change to law.

Helloworldboy 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

Teever 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

But not all States' gun laws are equally strict? So if the state with the stricted gun laws is acting in a constitutional manner then other states could also implement those laws but choose not to.

So a lot of this stuff is truly self inflicted and the result of poor policy choices -- not because of governments reluctantly but dutifully obeying the 2nd amendment.

qup an hour ago | parent [-]

As a matter of fact, the right for states to impose strict laws is before the supreme court right now.

I expect to see them reigning in the states. The 2nd amendment is unambiguous.

Aurornis 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Yes, bad guys might have guns, but that's the case everywhere around the world.

The number of guns in the hands of bad guys caries drastically around the world.

You can’t reduce this to “it’s the same everywhere” because it’s not.

martin_a 8 hours ago | parent [-]

True!

What I meant is that I think German police, for example, are probably less worried that a traffic stop is likely to get them killed or have them escalate a situation to the use of lethal force.

I think this might be different in the US because guns are just much more common there.

fc417fc802 8 hours ago | parent [-]

I think that's true but it's not guns alone it's broadly cultural in nature. Different places are different. Even in the US there are vast differences between regions.

miramba 8 hours ago | parent [-]

I think “culture change” is what is ultimately proposed here.

fc417fc802 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That's like observing that we could probably solve the issue of people saying mean things on the internet by requiring ID to access it. You have to consider any expected negative consequences as well as if you'd be violating any rights.

VHRanger 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Youre aware that the rest of the planet have stricter gun laws and the American problems are fairly unique?

This is even after controlling for things that exacerbate crime like high economic inequality.

For instance, Brazil [1] (a much poorer and more unequal country than the USA) has lower murder rate than a lot of cities now than the USA. The murder rate of Rio seems to be about on the level of Houston (17/100k), or about a third of Detroit (47).

But Rio clearly has __a lot more crime__ than Houston. It's palpable when you're in either city. Even with the Favelas and heavily armed gangs, the murder rate is comparatively low because *normal people dont have guns at nearly the same rate*.

And it shouldn't take a leap of faith to figure out that higher gun ownership leads to more deaths. Guns are the one tool we have intentionally made to cause death.

1. I'm aware that Brazil has a higher murder rate, but comparing cities is a better pick. The northeast of Brazil is in another league than anywhere in the USA in economic conditions; it's not comparable. The only city I can think of with USA levels of economic development would be Florianopolis (murder rate 7/100k) or maybe Balneario Camboriu, or some parts of Sao Paulo like Vila Olimpia.

mothballed 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Places like New Hampshire have the lowest murder rates in USA but yet the loosest gun laws (New Hampshire has nearly European homicide rates but also a very European ethnicity type demographic). The murder rates in USA are tied way closer to where black people are than what the gun law is with the notable exception of New Mexico.

And before someone rages... look for yourself:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9e/Af...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/83/Ho...

VHRanger a minute ago | parent | next [-]

Ah, some egregious misuse of statistics!

Murder is a byproduct of crime. Crime is, largely, downstream of economic conditions with some obvious caveats.

New Hampshire has the 2nd lowest crime rate of the USA states. You could make the same argument for, say, Switzerland (high gun ownership but no crime/murder). But no one would be surprised if you had high gun ownership in Monaco.

Similarly for the ethnic argument you're trying to make: Majority black neighbourhoods in the USA tend to be poor. They also tend to be near more affluent places. Unlike poor white neighbourhoods, which are on average more rural in the USA.

Being poor, and being next to rich people, and being excluded from legal increases of becoming rich, will increase crime.

This should be obvious. Brazil has famously Favelas right next to wealthy areas and has a persistent crime problem for example.

---

In short, it's really incredible how far some Americans will go to deny the obvious truth: *gun prevalence increases deadly crime*.

Sure, some cultural factors will increase crime/violence on the margin. But the reason y'all have a bunch of shootings is that you have a bunch of guns to do shootings with. That simple.

Hikikomori 8 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

A map over poor people would likely look the same.

LPisGood 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

We’ve seen other highly developed countries operate just fine without arming their citizenry to the teeth.

fc417fc802 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

We've also seen it go wrong plenty of times. They can do them and we can do us I figure; I'm quite happy with my gun rights thanks.

There are highly developed countries that tightly regulate speech and network access relative to most of the west. Does that mean adopting an ID requirement to post on Twitter coupled with anti hate speech laws would be an obviously good thing?

LPisGood 7 hours ago | parent [-]

If tweets were a leading cause of death in children we should probably at least consider making it harder to tweet.

fc417fc802 7 hours ago | parent [-]

It was an arbitrary example. Try to see past the politically charged topic to the actual analogy that I'm attempting to make.

The point of my original reply wasn't about the position being expressed but rather the stated reasoning. If your logic amounts to "Y could solve X therefore we should be doing Y" notice that when applied to other things that line of reasoning doesn't seem to hold up very well.

If you want to have a discussion about child mortality versus tail risks such as elections being suspended or the government murdering protesters a la Iran that's fine but please realize that wasn't the point of my earlier reply.

EQmWgw87pw 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don’t know if there is any precedent from taking away hundreds of millions of guns from an armed country actually

LPisGood 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Australia de-armed pretty successfully.

defrost 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Australia has more guns now, and more guns per capita, than it did at the time it almost unified all gun laws.

It didn't "de-arm" - it brought all states and territories into near alignment on gun regulation.

If you're interested I can link to good footage of my actual IRL neighbour shooting 24x24 inch targets at 5,000 yards, here in Australia.

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7owwTz7Z0OE

Alternatively you might be interested in Australian footage of feral control, taking down 800 oversized wild pigs in 4 hours from a helicopter.

mindcrime 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> We’ve seen other highly developed countries operate just fine without arming their citizenry to the teeth.

Good for them. As an American, I'm quite happy with our Second Amendment rights, I'm not looking to roll that back in the slightest. And if anything, with the recent rise of the fascist authoritarian regime that we've seen, I'd think that maybe a whole lot of "anti gun" people here would be well on their way to becoming "formerly anti gun" people.

amanaplanacanal 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

All my life I've heard that an armed populace is to protect us from authoritarian government. Now that we have creeping authoritarians running the country, where are all of those "second amendment solution" people? What trigger are they waiting for, exactly?

pesus 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Realistically, it's more to protect from unhinged supporters of the current regime than the regime itself.

fc417fc802 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Recall that this authoritarian won the popular vote ~18 months ago.

The protection is against a minority authoritarian government. If half the populace supports the guy in charge then taking up arms is effectively a declaration of civil war. That's a case of the cure being worse than the affliction.

Fast forward a year or so, suppose popularity has hit single or low double digits, imagine a blatant attempt at subverting the election process, that's where an armed populace comes in.

mindcrime 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> What trigger are they waiting for, exactly?

Critical mass.

Look, I could pick up a rifle tomorrow, and march on DC by myself with the intention of toppling the fascist regime. And what would result? I'd be quickly arrested or killed and nothing would change. So what's the point?

But if I was part of a group of 1,000,000 like-minded people, then I might still be arrested or killed, but at least there's a much higher likelihood that some actual change would take place.

Now, as a lifelong believer in the "an armed populace is to protect us from authoritarian government" mindset myself, I have to say, I am extremely disappointed in a lot of people right now. People that I grew up with, that I've always trusted, respected, and maybe even admired. Because while fascism metastasizes and spreads through our country nearly completely unchecked, they all seem unwilling to even speak up against what's going on. And I can't defend their choices, but I can say that I still believe that there is a tipping point, some event, or sequence of events, that would kick things into into gear if needed[1].

[1]: I say "if needed" because it's not 100% clear to me that the only possible way out of this mess is an armed uprising. We might still be able to "vote our way out of this" and the optimistic take is that many Americans are sitting on their hands as long as they hold a shred of hope that that is still possible.

The more pessimistic take is that a majority of the "second amendment to protect us from authoritarianism" crowd are hypocritical ass-clowns, who are actually OK with authoritarianism as long as "their guy" is the one in power. :-(

Teever 4 hours ago | parent [-]

But you won't get that critical mass without a spark.

People need to see action and see it work without repercussions to the actor.

People will take notice when someone like Thiel, Bannon, or Miller are taken down with a drone and the drone operator escapes arrest.

They'll think to themselves "Wait a minute, if someone can take out a billionaire I can take out that cop who raped my cousin and got a paid vacation as punishment for it."

What comes after that is anybody's guess but I predict an impending moment where individual citizens realize that they're not as helpless as they have been lead to believe and that technology can help them eliminate long-standing criminals operating in positions of power with immunity in theiry local communities.

krapp 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They either voted for the authoritarian or they don't care as long as the authoritarian doesn't touch their guns. Womp womp.

NikolaNovak 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Can you tell me more?

As an individual person, having right to bear guns doesn't seem to have any impact or saving powers against the authoritarian regime. What scenarios relating to authoritarian regimes (be specific) do you find having a gun at home would help with?

mindcrime 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> As an individual person, having right to bear guns doesn't seem to have any impact or saving powers against the authoritarian regime.

See my reply above. But loosely speaking, you are correct when looking at things from a purely individual point of view. No one of us is going to topple an authoritarian regime by ourselves. But I don't think that was ever the point. It's an assemblage of large numbers of like-minded armed individuals who can effect change.

And just to be clear... I'm a peaceful person at heart (but not a pacifist). I don't want blood-shed, and I don't want to see an armed uprising or a civil war on many levels. But I'd at least like to see many of my fellow #2A advocates being more vocal and visible about stating our displeasure with the current environment, and our willingness in principle to take action if/when it becomes clear that it is necessary. That, ideally, in and of itself reduces the need for actual violence, by acting as a strong deterrent.

fc417fc802 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Aside from the obvious (being ready and able to form an armed resistance) there's the deterrent. When you know that your populace has certain options available to them that will inform your actions.

terminalshort 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You are naive for assuming that the government aren't the bad guys with guns. Just ask the 30,000 Iranian protesters that were slaughtered if you don't believe me.

coryrc 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They should stop "raiding" people's homes.

They don't raid schools when there's someone actively killing children. They can just hold off a bit and get people when they're on the move.

themaninthedark 6 hours ago | parent [-]

They are supposed to. That was the lesson learned from Columbine.

That is also why the police response in Uvalde is highly criticized.

pizlonator 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Police do regularly get shot at when raiding.

Got any data?

It happens daily? Weekly? Monthly?

What is "regularly"?

EQmWgw87pw 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Doing quick research says about 1 shot at per day, 1-2 fatalities per week, and about 26,000 assaults per year

dpark 7 hours ago | parent [-]

That’s total officers shot, not specifically for raids.

A NYT investigation indicated there were “at least 13” officer deaths tied to forced entry raids from 2010-2016, so around 2/year. It’s unclear how many other fatalities happen in no knock raids. Given that there are only 50-60 total fatalities/year it’s surprising there isn’t comprehensive data for this.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/18/us/forced-ent...

There are an estimated 20k-80k no-knock warrants in the US every year for context.