| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 7 hours ago |
| Developers not recouping their investment will discourage less housing in Austin in the future and it will become expensive again. A lot of our current housing shortages are from the build up in 2008 and an implosion of the entire industry (so that crafts people did not really exist for the next need for housing). |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > Developers not recouping their investment Last time I did the back-of-the-envelope math, financing permitting delays in San Francisco added 10% to the cost of new housing [1]. (Note: not the cost of permitting. Just the cost of financing the delay.) This is deadweight loss that everyone in the transaction wins from eliminating. One could absolutely see lower prices and higher developer margins if this waste were cut. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38664780 |
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| ▲ | strbean 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | > everyone in the transaction wins Nobody ever thinks of the poor banks! | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Nobody ever thinks of the poor banks! I thought about that. But a bank would rather lend in lots of high-confidence, low-duration deals than a small number of high-margin deals. The only people who lose when housing is built are incoment landowners. Because prices go down. | |
| ▲ | lo_zamoyski 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Usury-as-a-Service. | | |
| ▲ | pclowes 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | At scale banks only win as a facilitator of economic growth.
As the adage goes they can only 3-6-3 if someone is making at least 7. For the everyman banks not winning is catastrophic. | |
| ▲ | thaumasiotes 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's always been a service. |
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| ▲ | nemomarx 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| They can recoup the investment with volume (especially apartments) I would think? Sell 10 houses at 2 million each or 30 at 1 million each or however it breaks down. |
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| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Their land, labor, and material costs aren’t trivial. If thy were pulling a 10-20% margin before, how will increasing volume (which increases costs) make it up? | | |
| ▲ | bryan_w 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | They reinvest that generous 10% to buy more tools and hire more talent to build 10x as many homes at 2%. Seems pretty straightforward to me | | |
| ▲ | estearum 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | you should go into real estate development and make a fortune while solving a serious social problem for your country! | |
| ▲ | pixl97 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Taking on those liabilities is very risky when the next downturn happens and you're stuck with inventory. |
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| ▲ | atomicnumber3 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| So, do we just need to nationalize housing construction? If the free market apparently just can't handle it? |
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| ▲ | matheweis 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It’s not a free market construction issue at all, it’s a regulatory zoning and permitting issue. Read the article and the peer comments here; Austin’s boom came about from reducing regulatory constraints. Nationally remove the artificial restrictions and the supply side will fix itself. | | |
| ▲ | shimman 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Seems like a free market issue, any profit resulting from development is a free market issue. Your profit margins mean worse quality housing for people, and we can see what actual public housing programs look like with Singapore and Vienna where rents can typically cost less than 20% of median salaries: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVuCZMLeWko As renown corporate welfare recipient Bezos would say: "your margin is [our] opportunity." If the only thing stopping development is that rich developers want to make more money, then maybe we should get rid of the rich developers and let the public decide what to build. It couldn't be worse and it'd be 20-60% cheaper too. | | |
| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > actual public housing programs look like with Singapore and Vienna where rents can typically cost less than 20% of median salaries It could work, but both Singapore and Austria have less than 10 million people amd have a residency system where you just can't come in from the outside and get your subsidized housing in Vienna or Singapore. Singapore doesn't extend subsidized housing to its foreign residents, even permanent residents, and they make up 40% of the population! Vienna is a bit better, as it applies it to all EU citizens who are resident in Austria, but you have to have lived at the same address there for 2 years, you just can't come in and claim one. |
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| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Did Austin really have any constraints holding it back? It’s still Texas. People still look at Houston as the canonical example of a city with no artificial constraints. |
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| ▲ | 0_____0 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Public housing projects were and sort of still are a thing. Glass Amendment limits the number of units that can be produced but most areas are well below those limits and the larger issue is that there's no budget or political willpower for social housing projects right now. | | |
| ▲ | fragmede 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | There wasn't, but given the housing market right now, I don't know that there isn't. | | |
| ▲ | 0_____0 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Most blue metros in the US have a bad combination of high labor costs/low labor availability, high regulatory burden, wealthy conservative inhabitants who oppose construction, and working class people who are convinced that construction is gentrification. I've been racking my brain trying ti figure out what it looks like for US cities to pull out of the housing crisis, and I think it's either going to take about a generation, or there will be some catastrophic event (Great Depression II, WWIII) that changes the political landscape so drastically that nobody can really oppose housing anymore. |
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| ▲ | seanmcdirmid 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Maybe? Obviously boom bust cycles that come from a free market are not very efficient. | |
| ▲ | trollbridge 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | We already have that. They're called "housing projects". |
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| ▲ | nzeid 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What evidence is there that developers won't break even or profit? The demand is clearly there, it's a seller's market. |
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| ▲ | pixl97 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not so much any longer. The sales tap really turned off a while back and prices have been dropping a while here in Austin. |
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| ▲ | postflopclarity 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| just because rents fell doesn't mean developers couldn't recoup their investment. 2008 was completely different. |
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| ▲ | standardUser 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| It's a balancing act. Build too much and developers make less money. Build too little and poverty and homelessness shoot up. Which side do you want to err on? |