Eva are great until you have the replace the battery. Then you’ll finally realize the real cost of owning an EV.

Once people realize that, then the game is over. Honda is just forecasting the future more accurately than other automakers.

What time horizon are you basing this on? It seems like most EVs will retain 70-85% capacity after a decade.

There likely isn’t data for anything beyond 12-15 years but I’m not sure that’ll matter given most people own cars ~7-8 years.

https://evelectriccars.com/electric-car-battery-lifespan/

How often do batteries get replaced in EVs? 10 year old cars have ~85% SOH typically. Sometimes more.

Gas cars are great until you realize you have to replace the gas. Then you'll realize the cost of owning a gas car.

Once people realize they're literally burning the expensive gas they put in their vehicle, the game is over.

Also, gas is a limited resource which after you burn never ever comes back, so it is expected to get more expensive, while all the rare earth metals in batteries can be recycled into new batteries because when you use the battery, you aren't actually burning it away into nothing. You can even recharge it.