> Will be at least 20 years if it ever happens.

And if 100% of EV's sold this year were electric, it would take ~24 years for basically all of the vehicles on the road were electric. (The average age of registered cars in the US is 12 years old).

Estimates are that a 100% EV fleet would increase electricity demand by 20%. So that's < 1 % a year.

Approximately how much demand increases due to increasing A/C usage in the US.

And a lot less than AI/crypto is increasing demand.

And that's not to mention that EV charging is a relatively easy demand to meet -- most EV owners charge when it's cheapest, so you can shape demand via price signals.

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hedora 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

So, EVs would reduce electricity usage in the long term (by eliminating the growth in demand from air conditioning).

On top of that, things like balcony and rooftop solar are much more economically attractive if you have a lot of load at your house, so people that buy EVs are likely to also self-generate a lot of electricity.

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boringg 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You can somewhat change the profile by price signals -- however if all vehicles are EVs there is a good portion of that demand that is inelastic. You will also need to be able to handle larger volumes of demand for faster charging stations and that entire effort of infra.

Its all doable but it is not as a simple as every plugs in at home. Its a large co-ordinated infrastructure effort.

You also brought up some other valid issues -- right now we are looking at the being undersupplied for electricity across NA without a wholesale swap to EVs. Maybe the upside of the oversupply of AI is that we have a lot of stranded assets for electrical charging infra/generation afterwards..

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bryanlarsen 10 hours ago | parent [-]

So if EV's cause electricity demand to go up by less than 1% per year, it'll cause inelastic demand to go up a small fraction of 1%. If operators can't expand at that low a rate, we have bigger problems.

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boringg 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Full fleet of EVs would be 20-30 % of our annual electricity. Ain't no way we can acomodate for that on any near term timeline especially if you add in all the additional demand on electricity from AI/compute.

Now if had money as a country and had a recent history of building actual physical things for a reasonable cost. Yes may we could get there -- but current state of affairs - broke and limited manufacturing ability.

	▲	bryanlarsen 10 hours ago \| parent [-]
		The timeline is decades, since fleet turnover takes decades.